Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [9/27/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lynx a 73.4% chance of beating the Liberty. According to our model, the Lynx (-6.5) have a 50.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 173.5-point over/under has a 52.7% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Liberty +6.5 (+104) / Lynx -6.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Liberty +235, Lynx -245
• Total: Over/Under 173.5 (-108/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty +6.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Lynx @ 71¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 173.5 @ -108 via BetRivers

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Lynx to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

Betting on Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.

Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 19 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while Olivia Miles is projected to have 20 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Lynx.

For early game action, the data identifies Breanna Stewart as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	19	8	3	1	40
Jonquel Jones	15	9	2	2	35
Sabrina Ionescu	14	4	5	2	31
Pauline Astier	8	5	3	1	22
Leonie Fiebich	6	3	2	1	17

Lynx player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Olivia Miles	20	5	6	2	42
N. Collier	18	7	2	2	38
Kayla McBride	16	3	2	3	29
Natasha Howard	13	7	4	0	35
C. Williams	13	5	5	1	30

Game info & tip-off details

Sunday's game between the Lynx and Liberty at Target Center is scheduled to start at 2:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
• Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
• Time: 2:00 PM ET/11:00AM PT
• Venue: Target Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with a 73.4% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Sunday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.