Sep 18, 2026
Fire vs. Valkyries prediction favors Golden State to win Friday's WNBA matchup [9/18/2026]
Read Article Liberty vs. Lynx prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Friday's WNBA matchup [9/18/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 63.7% win probability for the Lynx at Target Center.
The Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty will meet in the WNBA Playoffs at Target Center on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Lynx as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Lynx prediction.
The Lynx, with star players like Olivia Miles, Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride, will face off against the Liberty, whose lineup includes Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Liberty vs. Lynx prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Friday's WNBA game between the Liberty and Lynx, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lynx a 63.7% chance of defeating the Liberty. According to our model, the Liberty (+5.5) have a 57.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 50.8% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Liberty +5.5 (-104) / Lynx -5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Liberty +203, Lynx -213
- Total: Over/Under 177.5 (+100/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Liberty +5.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Liberty @ 33¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Under 177.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty +5.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Friday's New York vs. Minnesota game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Target Center.
Breanna Stewart is expected to lead the Liberty with 17 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Olivia Miles is projected to have 19 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Lynx.
For early game action, the data identifies Breanna Stewart as the most probable player to secure the first basket.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Liberty player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 37 |
| Jonquel Jones | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 35 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Pauline Astier | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| Leonie Fiebich | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Lynx player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Lynx:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Miles | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 42 |
| N. Collier | 19 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 39 |
| Kayla McBride | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 29 |
| C. Williams | 13 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
| Natasha Howard | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 |
Game info & tip-off details
Friday's game between the Lynx and Liberty at Target Center is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx
- Date: Friday, September 18, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Target Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 63.7% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Friday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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