Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: New York favored to win Tuesday's WNBA matchup [7/28/2026]

The Los Angeles Sparks will take on the New York Liberty in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday, commencing at 10:00 PM ET.

Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Liberty as the most likely winner in this Liberty vs. Sparks prediction game.

The Sparks, who have stars such as Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, will face off against the Liberty, featuring Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Liberty vs. Sparks prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA matchup between the Liberty and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Liberty a 67.1% chance of defeating the Sparks.

According to our model, the Sparks (+4.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 182.5-point over/under has a 69.4% chance of staying under,.

Liberty vs. Sparks odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Liberty	Sparks
Spread	-4.5 (-113)	+4.5 (+108)
Moneyline	-178	+176
Total	o182.5 (-104)	u182.5 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Liberty vs. Sparks picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Sparks +4.5	+108
Moneyline	Liberty	-178
Total	Under 182.5	+100

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 182.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Liberty vs. Sparks player props

Betting on New York vs. Los Angeles WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.

Sabrina Ionescu is expected to lead the Liberty with 22 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 15.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Liberty prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Liberty are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Sabrina Ionescu	22	5	6	3	44
Breanna Stewart	20	9	4	1	45
Jonquel Jones	14	9	3	2	36
Pauline Astier	11	3	4	1	24
Marine Johannes	8	2	2	2	17

Sparks prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Nneka Ogwumike	18	8	3	2	36
Dearica Hamby	16	7	3	0	34
Rae Burrell	15	3	2	2	27
Ariel Atkins	14	4	4	1	31
Cameron Brink	12	7	2	1	32

Liberty vs. Sparks game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Sparks and Liberty at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks
• Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Crypto.com Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Liberty, with a 67.1% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.