Lynx vs. Fire prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win Wednesday's WNBA matchup [8/12/2026]
Get Minnesota Lynx vs Portland Fire predictions for WNBA Wednesday.
The Portland Fire will take on the favored Minnesota Lynx in WNBA action at Moda Center on Wednesday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Lynx as the most likely winner in this Lynx vs. Fire prediction.
The Fire, powered by Bridget Carleton, Carla Leite and Megan Gustafson, will face off against the Lynx, featuring Napheesa Collier, Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Wednesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Lynx vs. Fire prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lynx an 88.0% chance of beating the Fire.
According to our model, the Fire (+12.5) have a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 185.5 points has a 55.3% chance of staying under,.
Lynx vs. Fire odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Lynx -12.5 (-104) / Fire +12.5 (+104)
- Moneyline: Lynx -669, Fire +669
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lynx vs. Fire picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Fire +12.5 @ +104 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Lynx @ -669 via Polymarket
- Total: Under 185.5 @ +104 via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 185.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lynx vs. Fire player props
Betting on Minnesota vs. Portland WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Moda Center.
Napheesa Collier is expected to lead the Lynx with 21 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Bridget Carleton is projected to have 18 points, 7 rebounds and 2 assists for the Fire.
When evaluating the first basket market, Megan Gustafson is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 12.9% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Lynx prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Collier | 21 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 44 |
| Olivia Miles | 19 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| Kayla McBride | 18 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 32 |
| C. Williams | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 34 |
| Natasha Howard | 12 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 32 |
Fire prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Fire:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Carleton | 18 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 36 |
| Carla Leite | 13 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
| Megan Gustafson | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Emily Engstler | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
Lynx vs. Fire game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Fire and Lynx at Moda Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. Portland Fire
- Date: Wednesday, August 12, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Moda Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with an 88.0% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
