Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Minnesota favored to win Friday's WNBA game [7/3/2026]

The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx are scheduled to meet in the WNBA at Barclays Center on Friday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Lynx a slight edge with a 50.2% win probability over the Liberty.

The Liberty, who have stars such as Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones, are set to take on the Lynx, featuring Natasha Howard, Kayla McBride and Olivia Miles.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's Lynx vs. Liberty matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's WNBA matchup between the Lynx and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Lynx a 50.2% chance of beating the Liberty.

According to our model, the Liberty (+2.5) have a 58.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 63.0% chance of staying under,.

Lynx vs. Liberty odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lynx	Liberty
Spread	-2.5 (-105)	+2.5 (-105)
Moneyline	-134	+120
Total	o174.5 (-108)	u174.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lynx vs. Liberty picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Liberty +2.5	-105
Moneyline	Liberty	+120
Total	Under 174.5	-110

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lynx vs. Liberty player props

Looking for Lynx vs. Liberty WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Natasha Howard is expected to lead the Lynx with 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists for the Liberty.

Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 13% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Lynx prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Natasha Howard	17	9	3	0	39
Kayla McBride	16	3	3	3	30
Olivia Miles	16	5	5	1	35
C. Williams	15	5	6	1	35
Nia Coffey	10	6	2	2	27

Liberty prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	8	4	1	38
Sabrina Ionescu	15	4	4	2	30
Jonquel Jones	13	8	3	2	32
Pauline Astier	11	3	4	1	25
Marine Johannes	8	2	2	2	17

Lynx vs. Liberty game-day updates and essential details

Friday's matchup between the Liberty and Lynx at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Friday, July 3, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Lynx, with a 50.2% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Friday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.