Sep 29, 2026
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Read Article Lynx vs. Liberty prediction favors Minnesota to win Tuesday's WNBA game [9/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 53.1% win probability for the Lynx at Barclays Center.
The New York Liberty will square off with the Minnesota Lynx, in what is expected to be a tight WNBA game, at Barclays Center on Tuesday, beginning at 8:30 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model gives the Lynx a slight edge with a 53.1% win probability over the Liberty.
The Liberty, powered by Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu, are set to take on the Lynx, whose lineup includes Olivia Miles, Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride.
This article offers a complete Lynx vs. Liberty prediction, including best bets and player prop picks.
Lynx vs. Liberty prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Lynx and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Lynx a 53.1% chance of beating the Liberty. According to our model, the Liberty (+3.5) have a 59.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 51.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Lynx -3.5 (-104) / Liberty +3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Lynx -155, Liberty +150
- Total: Over/Under 174.5 (+100/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Liberty +3.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Liberty @ 40¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 174.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Liberty +3.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
Looking for Lynx vs. Liberty WNBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Olivia Miles is expected to lead the Lynx with 19 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.
When evaluating the first basket market, Breanna Stewart is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 14% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Lynx player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Lynx are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Miles | 19 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 41 |
| N. Collier | 18 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Kayla McBride | 16 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 28 |
| Natasha Howard | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 |
| C. Williams | 12 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 29 |
Liberty player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 41 |
| Jonquel Jones | 15 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Pauline Astier | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Leonie Fiebich | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Game info & tip-off details
Tuesday's matchup between the Liberty and Lynx at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Lynx, with a 53.1% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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