Sep 21, 2026
WNBA player props today: Monday's best props include Angel Reese [9/21/2026]
Read Article Wings vs. Mercury prediction sees Paige Bueckers projected to score 17 points in Monday's WNBA matchup [9/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 72.8% win probability for the Wings at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Phoenix Mercury and Dallas Wings are scheduled to meet in the WNBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday, with tipoff at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Wings as the most likely winner in this Wings vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, powered by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack, will face off against the Wings, featuring Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale and Jessica Shepard.
Bueckers, the young phenom making headlines with the Wings, is expected to shine with a projected 17 points and 3 threes.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Wings vs. Mercury prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's WNBA game between the Wings and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Wings a 72.8% chance of beating the Mercury. According to our model, the Wings (-5.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 172.5-point over/under has a 51.2% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Wings -5.5 (-102) / Mercury +5.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Wings -212, Mercury +203
- Total: Over/Under 172.5 (-104/+100)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Wings -5.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
- Moneyline: Wings @ 68¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 172.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Wings to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA player props are a popular way to wager on Monday's Dallas vs. Phoenix matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Paige Bueckers is expected to lead the Wings with 17 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 15 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Paige Bueckers as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Wings player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Wings are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | 17 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 35 |
| A. Ogunbowale | 15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Jessica Shepard | 12 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 33 |
| Aziaha James | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Awak Kuier | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 |
Mercury player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 12 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| Natasha Mack | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Shay Ciezki | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Noemie Brochant | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Game info & tip-off details
Monday's game between the Mercury and Wings at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Monday, September 21, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Wings, with a 72.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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