Dream vs. Mercury prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Saturday's WNBA matchup [8/22/2026]

WNBA action continues on Saturday at 10:00 PM ET as the favored Atlanta Dream square off with the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Dream as the most likely winner in this Dream vs. Mercury prediction.

The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, will face off against the Dream, featuring Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese.

This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Dream vs. Mercury prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA game between the Dream and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Dream a 79.6% chance of beating the Mercury.

According to our model, the Dream (-8.5) have a 50.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 51.4% chance of staying under.

Dream vs. Mercury odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream -8.5 (+104) / Mercury +8.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dream -300, Mercury +308

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Dream vs. Mercury picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dream -8.5 @ +104 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Dream @ -300 via Polymarket
• Total: Under 176.5 @ +113 via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Dream vs. Mercury player props

Betting on Atlanta vs. Phoenix WNBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 19 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists for the Mercury.

For early game action, the data identifies Kahleah Copper as the most probable player to secure the first basket.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	19	3	4	2	33
Rhyne Howard	17	4	4	3	36
Angel Reese	16	12	3	1	44
Jordin Canada	11	4	7	2	32
Naz Hillmon	9	5	2	1	21

Mercury prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Kahleah Copper	19	4	3	2	31
Alyssa Thomas	14	7	8	0	41
DeWanna Bonner	11	7	1	2	28
Sami Whitcomb	8	3	3	2	19
Noemie Brochant	7	3	2	1	17

Dream vs. Mercury game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Mercury and Dream at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury
• Date: Saturday, August 22, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 79.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.