Sep 23, 2026
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Read Article Dream vs. Liberty prediction favors New York to win Wednesday's WNBA game [9/23/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 54.7% win probability for the Liberty at Barclays Center.
The New York Liberty will take on the Atlanta Dream, in what is expected to be a close WNBA game, at Barclays Center on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model gives the Liberty a slight edge with a 54.7% win probability over the Dream.
The Liberty, who have stars such as Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu, will face off against the Dream, featuring Allisha Gray, Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard.
This article offers a complete Dream vs. Liberty prediction, including best bets and player prop picks.
Dream vs. Liberty prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Wednesday's WNBA game between the Dream and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Liberty a 54.7% chance of defeating the Dream. According to our model, the Liberty (+1.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 53.6% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Dream -1.5 (+138) / Liberty +1.5 (-144)
- Moneyline: Dream +122, Liberty -127
- Total: Over/Under 176.5 (-104/+100)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Dream -1.5 @ 42¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Dream @ 45¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Over 176.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream -1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA prop bets are a great way to wager on the Atlanta vs. New York matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.
Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 20 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Breanna Stewart striking first with a 13.4% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Dream player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Angel Reese | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 43 |
| Rhyne Howard | 16 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 34 |
| Jordin Canada | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 33 |
| DeWanna Bonner | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Liberty player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Stewart | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 40 |
| Jonquel Jones | 16 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 37 |
| Sabrina Ionescu | 15 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 31 |
| Pauline Astier | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Leonie Fiebich | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
Game info & tip-off details
Wednesday's action between the Liberty and Dream at Barclays Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
- Date: Wednesday, September 23, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Barclays Center
Conclusion
We predict the Liberty, with a 54.7% win probability, will likely beat the Dream in Wednesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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