Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta prediction, odds, picks for ATP China Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's Medvedev-Carreno Busta men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev a 78% chance of beating Carreno Busta at the ATP China Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 74% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-4.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 21.5 games has a 51% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Pablo Carreno Busta +333, Daniil Medvedev -412
• First Set: Medvedev -333, Carreno Busta +250

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Carreno Busta @ +333 via DraftKings
• First Set: Carreno Busta @ -120 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Pablo Carreno Busta to win.

Although Carreno Busta is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP China Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta is scheduled to begin on Wednesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Pablo Carreno Busta
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Beijing, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 32

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat Pablo Carreno Busta at the ATP China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.