Lightning vs. Bruins Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Bruins NHL game on April 11, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Lightning
2
1
TD Garden
Bruins
TD Garden
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 0 2 2
Bruins
0 1 0 1
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Bruins
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
0 0 2 2
Bruins
0 1 0 1
P3 19:32 Power play - Morgan Geekie shot blocked by teammate
P3 18:22 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jeremy Swayman
P3 17:15 Shot missed by Tanner Jeannot
P3 16:31 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
P3 13:43 Declan Carlile shot blocked by Sean Kuraly
P3 13:19 Shot on goal by Mark Kastelic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:01 Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jeremy Swayman
P3 11:08 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
P3 10:22 Shot on goal by Casey Mittelstadt saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 10:04 Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Jeremy Swayman
P3 07:02 J.J. Moser shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:34 Shorthanded - Shot missed by Mark Kastelic
P3 03:25 Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Jeremy Swayman
P3 02:03 Nick Paul shot blocked by Mason Lohrei
P2 19:53 Shot missed by David Pastrnak
P2 18:02 Shot on goal by Viktor Arvidsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 17:09 Shot missed by Tanner Jeannot
P2 16:44 Shot missed by Jonathan Aspirot
P2 15:40 Shot on goal by Michael Eyssimont saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 15:40 Shot missed by Michael Eyssimont
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Morgan Geekie shot blocked by teammate
  3. P3 19:26
    Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Misconduct
  4. P3 19:14
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  5. P3 19:14
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  6. P3 18:25
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  7. P3 18:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jeremy Swayman
  8. P3 17:16
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Fraser Minten in defensive zone
  9. P3 17:15
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tanner Jeannot
  10. P3 16:31
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
  11. P3 14:50
    Gage Goncalves credited with hit on Hampus Lindholm in defensive zone
  12. P3 13:43
    SHOT
    Declan Carlile shot blocked by Sean Kuraly
  13. P3 13:21
    Declan Carlile won faceoff against Sean Kuraly in defensive zone
  14. P3 13:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Kastelic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  15. P3 12:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jeremy Swayman
  16. P3 11:26
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  17. P3 11:08
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
  18. P3 10:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  19. P3 10:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Casey Mittelstadt saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  20. P3 10:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Jeremy Swayman
  21. P3 08:57
    Ryan McDonagh credited with hit on Mark Kastelic in neutral zone
  22. P3 07:09
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Bruins in offensive zone
  23. P3 07:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  24. P3 07:02
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by teammate
  25. P3 06:37
    Pavel Zacha won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  26. P3 05:34
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot missed by Mark Kastelic
  27. P3 04:49
    Shorthanded - Takeaway by Marat Khusnutdinov in neutral zone
  28. P3 04:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  29. P3 04:17
    Shorthanded - Mark Kastelic won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  30. P3 04:17
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  31. P3 03:46
    Shorthanded - Fraser Minten won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  32. P3 03:46
    Penalty to Elias Lindholm 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Jake Guentzel)
  33. P3 03:26
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Elias Lindholm in offensive zone
  34. P3 03:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Jeremy Swayman
  35. P3 03:24
    Lightning won faceoff against Bruins in neutral zone
  36. P3 02:03
    SHOT
    Nick Paul shot blocked by Mason Lohrei
  37. P3 00:15
    Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
  38. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  39. P2 19:53
    SHOT
    Shot missed by David Pastrnak
  40. P2 19:01
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  41. P2 18:17
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Pavel Zacha in defensive zone
  42. P2 18:06
    Pavel Zacha won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  43. P2 18:04
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Casey Mittelstadt in defensive zone
  44. P2 18:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Viktor Arvidsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  45. P2 17:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tanner Jeannot
  46. P2 16:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jonathan Aspirot
  47. P2 15:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Eyssimont saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 15:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Eyssimont
  49. P2 14:44
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ryan McDonagh
  50. P2 14:16
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  51. P2 14:10
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  52. P2 14:00
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Marat Khusnutdinov in defensive zone
  53. P2 13:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jonathan Aspirot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  54. P2 13:38
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Pavel Zacha in offensive zone
  55. P2 13:38
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  56. P2 13:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  57. P2 13:13
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Viktor Arvidsson
  58. P2 12:19
    Mark Kastelic credited with hit on Nick Paul in offensive zone
  59. P2 10:54
    Giveaway by Mason Lohrei in defensive zone
  60. P2 10:47
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Fraser Minten in neutral zone
  61. P2 10:39
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
  62. P2 10:05
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  63. P2 09:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  64. P2 09:40
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  65. P2 09:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jeremy Swayman
  66. P2 08:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Viktor Arvidsson
  67. P2 08:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Kastelic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  68. P2 07:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mark Kastelic
  69. P2 06:56
    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  70. P2 06:43
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
  71. P2 05:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jeremy Swayman
  72. P2 04:39
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  73. P2 04:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mark Kastelic saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  74. P2 03:45
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mark Kastelic
  75. P2 03:07
    SHOT
    Nikita Zadorov shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  76. P2 02:12
    Stoppage - Icing
  77. P2 01:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Eyssimont
  78. P2 00:53
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jonathan Aspirot
  79. P2 00:20
    Lightning won faceoff against Bruins in neutral zone
  80. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  81. P1 19:56
    Lightning won faceoff against Bruins in neutral zone
  82. P1 19:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Jeremy Swayman
  83. P1 17:44
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
  84. P1 17:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
  85. P1 17:10
    Erik Cernak won faceoff against Bruins in neutral zone
  86. P1 16:53
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  87. P1 16:35
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by teammate
  88. P1 15:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Elias Lindholm saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  89. P1 15:00
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Elias Lindholm in defensive zone
  90. P1 15:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  91. P1 14:48
    SHOT
    Andrew Peeke shot blocked by teammate
  92. P1 14:42
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Elias Lindholm in defensive zone
  93. P1 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tanner Jeannot
  94. P1 13:12
    Declan Carlile credited with hit on Fraser Minten in defensive zone
  95. P1 12:57
    Declan Carlile credited with hit on Fraser Minten in neutral zone
  96. P1 12:35
    Fraser Minten won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  97. P1 12:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Fraser Minten saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  98. P1 11:25
    Elias Lindholm won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  99. P1 11:25
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  100. P1 10:56
    Giveaway by Conor Geekie in neutral zone
  101. P1 10:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Viktor Arvidsson
  102. P1 08:25
    Nick Paul won faceoff against Elias Lindholm in neutral zone
  103. P1 07:32
    SHOT
    Charlie McAvoy shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
  104. P1 06:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  105. P1 05:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Marat Khusnutdinov
  106. P1 04:05
    SHOT
    Elias Lindholm shot blocked by J.J. Moser
  107. P1 02:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
  108. P1 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Pavel Zacha saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  109. P1 00:51
    SHOT
    Jonathan Aspirot shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
  110. P1 00:03
    David Pastrnak credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in neutral zone
  111. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Bruins
24Shots on Goal20
38% Faceoff Win % 62%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
27Hits23
14 Shots Blocked 13
20Giveaways18
LightningTB
BruinsBOS
24Shots on Goal20
38% Faceoff Win % 62%
1/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 1/0
4Penalty Infraction Mins4
27Hits23
14 Shots Blocked 13
20Giveaways18

Lightning vs. Bruins: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Bruins
  • Date: Saturday, April 11, 2026
  • Time: 12:30 PM ET
  • Venue: TD Garden

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -105, Bruins 48¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 53%
  • Bruins: 47%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 53%, while the Bruins have a win probability of 47%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Bruins in the NHL game at TD Garden on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Bruins predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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