Senators vs. Oilers Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Oilers NHL game on March 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Senators
4
5
Rogers Place
Oilers
Rogers Place
TEAM123OTT
Senators
2 2 0 0 4
Oilers
2 0 2 1 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Senators
    0%
  • Oilers
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Senators
2 2 0 0 4
Oilers
2 0 2 1 5
OT1 01:32 Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
OT1 01:14 Power play - Connor McDavid shot blocked by Artem Zub
OT1 00:47 Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 19:47 Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
P3 19:11 Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
P3 18:55 Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Connor Ingram
P3 17:46 Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
P3 17:43 Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
P3 15:35 Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
P3 15:28 Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 14:05 Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 13:01 Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Drake Batherson
P3 11:08 Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 09:38 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Nick Jensen
P3 08:06 Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Lars Eller
P3 07:00 Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Connor Ingram
P3 06:51 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Zach Hyman
P3 05:15 Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 04:55 Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
P3 04:19 Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
Play by Play
  1. OT1 05:00
    End of 1st OT.
  2. OT1 01:43
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  3. OT1 01:32
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
  4. OT1 01:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Connor McDavid shot blocked by Artem Zub
  5. OT1 00:55
    Power play - Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  6. OT1 00:47
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  7. OT1 00:00
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
  8. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  9. P3 19:47
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  10. P3 19:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
  11. P3 18:58
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  12. P3 18:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  13. P3 18:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Jensen saved by Connor Ingram
  14. P3 18:17
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  15. P3 18:17
    Stoppage - Icing
  16. P3 17:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Evan Bouchard
  17. P3 17:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
  18. P3 16:25
    Connor McDavid credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone
  19. P3 16:19
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  20. P3 15:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
  21. P3 15:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
  22. P3 15:13
    Giveaway by Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  23. P3 14:26
    Stoppage - Hand Pass - TV timeout
  24. P3 14:17
    Giveaway by Zach Hyman in offensive zone
  25. P3 14:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
  26. P3 13:01
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Drake Batherson
  27. P3 12:01
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  28. P3 11:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
  29. P3 10:00
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  30. P3 10:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  31. P3 09:38
    SHOT
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Nick Jensen
  32. P3 08:06
    SHOT
    Mattias Ekholm shot blocked by Lars Eller
  33. P3 08:02
    Giveaway by Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  34. P3 07:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Connor Ingram
  35. P3 06:51
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Zach Hyman
  36. P3 05:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darnell Nurse saved by Linus Ullmark
  37. P3 04:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  38. P3 04:19
    SHOT
    Spencer Stastney shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  39. P3 03:53
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  40. P3 03:02
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Michael Amadio
  41. P3 02:59
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  42. P3 02:59
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  43. P3 02:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
  44. P3 01:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Connor Ingram
  45. P3 01:52
    Josh Samanski won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  46. P3 01:16
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Zach Hyman
  47. P3 00:38
    Penalty to Shane Pinto 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  48. P3 00:33
    SHOT
    Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  49. P3 00:00
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  50. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  51. P2 19:58
    Josh Samanski credited with hit on Nick Cousins in defensive zone
  52. P2 19:45
    SHOT
    Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by teammate
  53. P2 19:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kasperi Kapanen
  54. P2 17:22
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Connor McDavid in defensive zone
  55. P2 17:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  56. P2 16:28
    Giveaway by Connor McDavid in offensive zone
  57. P2 16:25
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
  58. P2 16:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Connor McDavid
  59. P2 15:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ty Emberson saved by Linus Ullmark
  60. P2 14:01
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Vasily Podkolzin saved by Linus Ullmark
  61. P2 13:33
    SHOT
    Power play - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shot blocked by Artem Zub
  62. P2 12:57
    Shorthanded - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  63. P2 12:57
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  64. P2 12:40
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Michael Amadio shot blocked by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  65. P2 12:17
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  66. P2 11:53
    Senators won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  67. P2 11:53
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  68. P2 11:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Connor Ingram
  69. P2 10:49
    Giveaway by Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  70. P2 10:44
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Connor Ingram
  71. P2 09:47
    Trent Frederic credited with hit on Jordan Spence in defensive zone
  72. P2 09:46
    Dylan Cozens credited with hit on Vasily Podkolzin in offensive zone
  73. P2 09:36
    Trent Frederic won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in neutral zone
  74. P2 09:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins saved by Linus Ullmark
  75. P2 09:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Hyman saved by Linus Ullmark
  76. P2 07:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Claude Giroux
  77. P2 07:09
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in defensive zone
  78. P2 06:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Evan Bouchard saved by Linus Ullmark
  79. P2 05:11
    Shane Pinto won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in neutral zone
  80. P2 05:04
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Stephen Halliday
  81. P2 05:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Connor Ingram
  82. P2 04:30
    Adam Henrique won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  83. P2 04:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Drake Batherson
  84. P2 02:54
    SHOT
    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Leon Draisaitl
  85. P2 02:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Connor Ingram
  86. P2 02:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jack Roslovic
  87. P2 00:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Connor Ingram
  88. P2 00:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darnell Nurse
  89. P2 00:07
    Vasily Podkolzin credited with hit on Nick Jensen in offensive zone
  90. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  91. P1 19:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Leon Draisaitl saved by Linus Ullmark
  92. P1 19:23
    SHOT
    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Artem Zub
  93. P1 19:12
    SHOT
    Darnell Nurse shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  94. P1 19:08
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  95. P1 18:53
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Ridly Greig
  96. P1 18:08
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tim Stutzle
  97. P1 17:13
    SHOT
    Josh Samanski shot blocked by Jordan Spence
  98. P1 16:37
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jack Roslovic in defensive zone
  99. P1 16:04
    Jack Roslovic won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
  100. P1 15:20
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins credited with hit on Artem Zub in offensive zone
  101. P1 14:47
    Giveaway by Tyler Kleven in defensive zone
  102. P1 14:14
    Curtis Lazar won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  103. P1 14:14
    Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
  104. P1 13:38
    SHOT
    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by teammate
  105. P1 13:05
    SHOT
    Artem Zub shot blocked by Darnell Nurse
  106. P1 11:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  107. P1 10:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Connor Ingram
  108. P1 10:36
    Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  109. P1 10:28
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
  110. P1 10:19
    Senators won faceoff against Oilers in neutral zone
  111. P1 09:56
    SHOT
    Power play - Stephen Halliday shot blocked by Jake Walman
  112. P1 09:27
    Shorthanded - Darnell Nurse credited with hit on Fabian Zetterlund in defensive zone
  113. P1 09:07
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Connor McDavid saved by Linus Ullmark
  114. P1 08:13
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Linus Ullmark
  115. P1 08:04
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  116. P1 08:00
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Adam Henrique in offensive zone
  117. P1 08:00
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  118. P1 07:53
    Ridly Greig credited with hit on Mattias Ekholm in offensive zone
  119. P1 06:34
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Connor Ingram
  120. P1 05:39
    Shorthanded - Adam Henrique won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  121. P1 05:03
    Josh Samanski won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
  122. P1 04:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mattias Ekholm saved by Linus Ullmark
  123. P1 04:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matt Savoie saved by Linus Ullmark
  124. P1 03:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  125. P1 03:34
    Connor McDavid won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  126. P1 03:13
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Leon Draisaitl in offensive zone
  127. P1 03:13
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  128. P1 02:42
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Connor Ingram
  129. P1 02:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Connor Ingram
  130. P1 00:48
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Zach Hyman
  131. P1 00:26
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jack Roslovic saved by Linus Ullmark
  132. P1 00:00
    Leon Draisaitl won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  133. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
STATS
Oilers
21Shots on Goal37
32% Faceoff Win % 68%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
14Hits24
9 Shots Blocked 14
15Giveaways21
SenatorsOTT
OilersEDM
21Shots on Goal37
32% Faceoff Win % 68%
3/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
14Hits24
9 Shots Blocked 14
15Giveaways21

Senators vs. Oilers: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Oilers
  • Date: Tuesday, March 3, 2026
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Rogers Place

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Oilers favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators +100, Oilers -118

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 47%
  • Oilers: 53%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 47%, while the Oilers have a win probability of 53%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Oilers are more likely to beat the Senators in the NHL game at Rogers Place on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Oilers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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