Why Kyler Murray and Woody Marks are our top NFL rushing props for Week 5

Bye weeks begin in Week 5, which means fewer teams on the slate than we’ve had all season, but there are still plenty of NFL betting opportunities this weekend, and rushing props are where our model keeps finding big edges.

NFL player props are where our model identifies the most betting value this weekend with more than 80 total props on the board, and the most prevalent markets lie in rushing props.

Vikings QB Kyler Murray and Texans RB Woody Marks are two players the Dimers NFL predictions model likes to climb the rushing yards ladder on Sunday. One holds the highest-probability prop on the board, and the other projects for his biggest workload since Week 1.

If you’re unfamiliar, a prop ladder is when you back a player to hit several yardage marks in one game, such as 20+, 25+, 30+, etc., with bigger payouts at increasingly longer odds the higher he climbs.

The best ladder targets combine volume, a vulnerable defense and Dimers projections that point above the market. Both of these players check all three boxes.

Kyler Murray (Vikings)

Game: Vikings vs. Saints

After getting knocked out of Week 1 early, Murray has been back under center for Minnesota for the past two games and has cleared this week’s rushing line in both.

Dimers projects Murray to go over his rushing yards line of 15.5 on Fanatics with a 73.6% probability. That’s the highest probability of any prop on the board as of this writing, and it lands right in our rushing Sweet Spot, which is returning a 26.9% ROI this season.

The price of admission on Murray’s ladder. is low; 20+ rushing yards comes in at plus money (+108), 25+ is +182 and 30+ is +280, which is right where we project him, at 30.0 rushing yards on the dot.

As mentioned, Murray cleared this 15.5 line in both games this year, and he tallied 25+ rushing yards in all five games he played last season before his injury, with 30+ in four of them. The year before, he hit 20+ in 10 games and 30+ in eight of those.

The matchup is strong, too. The Saints rank 30th against the run, allowing 144 rushing yards per game. Running backs have done most of that damage, with Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs each going for 145+, but the only mobile quarterback New Orleans has faced so far, Lamar Jackson, ran for 34 yards on them.

With top pass game options Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both limited in practice due to injuries, Minnesota just may need to lean on their QB's legs rather than his arm more than usual.

Woody Marks (Texans)

Game: Texans vs. Titans

The biggest indicator of upside is volume, and that’s precisely what we predict for Woody Marks in Week 5.

Two things flag Marks as a rushing ladder target in our model after we highlighted him as a player to watch in our Week 5 NFL Betting Guide. 

First, his projection of 36.0 rushing yards isn’t far behind “lead back” David Montgomery’s 49.8, and it clears his line of 31.5. Second, the Dimers model gives Marks a 61.7% chance to top 8.5 rushing attempts, which would be his biggest workload since Week 1, when he had nine carries.

That attempts prop has an edge on its own at near even money on DraftKings, and would be a viable straight bet per our model. But if you want to put all the data together, a small rushing ladder is worth a look. 40+ rushing yards comes in at +154, just four yards above our projection, while 50+ comes in at +280.

Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards through four weeks, at 123.5 per game. Two RB2s have already reached these marks against them: Najee Harris ran for 52 yards on 9 carries and Braelon Allen for 40 on 10 carries. That’s nearly identical volume to Marks’ attempts line.

Montgomery is averaging a paltry 2.7 YPC and hasn’t hit his rushing line in three straight games. Marks hasn’t been much more efficient at 3.1 YPC, but the projected carries point his way, and an 0-4 Texans team will need to shake things up sooner than later to find a spark.

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