Dimers had Ravens and Giants dead in the fourth quarter of their Week 5 overtime games

Sunday’s Week 5 slate produced two overtime games, and Dimers’ live NFL predictions model had given up on both underdogs before either one forced extra time. The Ravens trailed the Falcons 23-15 with just over two minutes left and were down to a 3.3% chance of winning. The Giants trailed the Commanders by two touchdowns with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter and were down to 2.0%. Baltimore walked away with a 30-23 overtime win. New York walked away with a 27-27 tie, the first tie of the 2026 season. Dimers’ live win probability tracker charts every swing like these in real time across the league.

Ravens erase a two-score deficit without Lamar Jackson

Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley started in place of an injured Lamar Jackson and still led Baltimore back from 23-15 down, a 3.3% win probability, with 2:29 left, driving 71 yards in six plays and hitting Devontez Walker for a touchdown before Derrick Henry’s two-point conversion tied it at 23 with about 40 seconds on the clock. That sequence is where Dimers’ model shows Baltimore’s win probability climbing off the floor.

In overtime, the Ravens won the toss, marched 68 yards across 14 plays, and Huntley capped the drive himself with a one-yard sneak. Atlanta starter Michael Penix Jr. had already left with a rib injury, and backup Tua Tagovailoa threw an interception to Kyle Hamilton on Atlanta’s second overtime snap, ending it. By 9:54 left in overtime, Dimers had Baltimore at 52.5%, the moment the model judged the Ravens the likelier winner for the first time since the opening quarter.

Commanders’ clock-management error turns a blowout into a tie

Washington led 27-13 with under eight minutes to go, well clear of the Giants on Dimers’ model, before Jameis Winston threw two touchdown passes, including a 17-yard score to Malik Nabers, to force overtime. New York’s win probability bottomed out at 2.0% with 11:05 left in the fourth before climbing back to 47.8% by the 10-minute mark of overtime.

The tie turned on a Washington mistake rather than a Giants score in the extra period: running back Cam Skattebo fumbled on the Commanders’ own possession, and after Washington drove back into range, quarterback Jayden Daniels scrambled without timeouts and the offense couldn’t get a play off before the clock expired. Our NFL news coverage has more on every Week 5 result.

A season already stacked with extra football

Sunday’s doubleheader of overtime games adds to a season that has leaned on OT more than once already. Green Bay needed it to beat the Jets in Week 2, and Kansas City needed it to hold off Indianapolis that same week. Week 5 then delivered both an overtime winner and the league’s first tie since the Commanders and Giants also finished level, 20-20, in December 2022.