Jets vs. Bears prediction: Why Chicago is favored to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Jets-Bears predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Jets and Bears, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Bears a 61.6% chance of defeating the Jets in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bears winning 23-19.

Key factors favoring the Bears:

• Chicago Bears Team Rating
• New York Jets Offense
• Chicago Bears Offense

According to our model, the Jets (+3.5) have a 54.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 43.5-point over/under has a 52.0% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• QB Rating

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Jets +3.5 (-104) / Bears -3.5 (+102)
• Moneyline: Jets +174, Bears -178
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (+102/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Jets +3.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Jets @ 36¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 43.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets +3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Jets vs. Bears TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jets vs. Bears?

According to our model, D'Andre Swift is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Jets vs. Bears.

Our projections give Swift a 52.3% chance of scoring a TD at Soldier Field, while the running back is a 13.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

• Braelon Allen (RB): 41.6% probability
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 37.6%
• Kenyon Sadiq (TE): 25.3%
• Isaiah Davis (RB): 22.5%
• Isaiah Williams (WR): 12.5%

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 52.3% prob.
• Colston Loveland (TE): 28.1%
• Kyle Monangai (RB): 27.2%
• Luther Burden (WR): 25.8%
• Kalif Raymond (WR): 21.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

New York Jets

• Braelon Allen (RB): 11.4% prob.
• Garrett Wilson (WR): 10.0%
• Kenyon Sadiq (TE): 6.2%
• Isaiah Davis (RB): 5.4%
• Isaiah Williams (WR): 2.8%

Chicago Bears

• D'Andre Swift (RB): 13.9% prob.
• Colston Loveland (TE): 6.2%
• Kyle Monangai (RB): 6.0%
• Luther Burden (WR): 5.6%
• Kalif Raymond (WR): 4.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jets and Bears. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jets' Geno Smith is projected for 226 passing yards. The Bears' Tyson Bagent is expected to throw for 199 yards.

Jets rushing

• Braelon Allen: 57 yds
• Isaiah Davis: 27 yds
• Geno Smith: 13 yds

Bears rushing

• D'Andre Swift: 73 yds
• Kyle Monangai: 45 yds
• Tyson Bagent: 17 yds

Jets receiving

• Garrett Wilson: 80 yds
• Kenyon Sadiq: 45 yds
• Isaiah Williams: 29 yds
• Jeremy Ruckert: 21 yds
• Sterling Shepard: 20 yds

Bears receiving

• Luther Burden: 52 yds
• Rome Odunze: 38 yds
• Colston Loveland: 38 yds
• Kalif Raymond: 37 yds
• D'Andre Swift: 17 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Bears and Jets at Soldier Field is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Soldier Field

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Conclusion

We predict the Bears, with a 61.6% win probability, will likely beat the Jets in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.