Dolphins vs. Vikings prediction: Why Minnesota is favored to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Dolphins-Vikings predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Dolphins and Vikings, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Vikings a 78.7% chance of beating the Dolphins in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Vikings winning 24-15.

Key factors favoring the Vikings:

• Minnesota Vikings Team Rating
• Minnesota Vikings QB Situation
• Miami Dolphins Offense

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Dolphins and Vikings each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 38.5-point over/under has a 54.8% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• Minnesota Vikings Recent Performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dolphins +9.5 (+104) / Vikings -9.5 (-106)
• Moneyline: Dolphins +471, Vikings -488
• Total: Over/Under 38.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Dolphins +9.5 @ 49¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Dolphins @ 18¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 38.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 38.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Dolphins vs. Vikings TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Dolphins vs. Vikings?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 4, Aaron Jones is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Dolphins vs. Vikings.

Our projections give Jones a 50.4% chance of getting in for six at U.S. Bank Stadium, while the running back is a 15.8% chance of registering the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 24.7% probability
• Malik Willis (QB): 20.8%
• Malik Washington (WR): 18.3%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 16.9%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 12.8%

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 50.4% prob.
• Jordan Addison (WR): 36.6%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 29.2%
• Jauan Jennings (WR): 28.1%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 20.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Miami Dolphins

• Ollie Gordon (RB): 7.2% prob.
• Malik Willis (QB): 5.9%
• Malik Washington (WR): 5.1%
• Jaylen Wright (RB): 4.7%
• Greg Dulcich (TE): 3.5%

Minnesota Vikings

• Aaron Jones (RB): 15.8% prob.
• Jordan Addison (WR): 10.3%
• T.J. Hockenson (TE): 7.8%
• Jauan Jennings (WR): 7.4%
• Kyler Murray (QB): 5.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Dolphins and Vikings. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Dolphins' Malik Willis is projected to have a quiet game with 186 passing yards, while the Vikings' Kyler Murray is expected to throw for 207 yards.

Dolphins rushing

• Malik Willis: 34 yds
• Jaylen Wright: 29 yds
• Ollie Gordon: 28 yds

Vikings rushing

• Aaron Jones: 69 yds
• Kyler Murray: 26 yds
• DeeJay Dallas: 14 yds

Dolphins receiving

• Malik Washington: 46 yds
• Chris Bell: 39 yds
• Greg Dulcich: 32 yds
• Kevin Coleman: 22 yds
• Ollie Gordon: 9 yds

Vikings receiving

• Jordan Addison: 66 yds
• T.J. Hockenson: 43 yds
• Jauan Jennings: 34 yds
• Aaron Jones: 23 yds
• Tai Felton: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 matchup between the Vikings and Dolphins at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Vikings, with a 78.7% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.