Jaguars vs. Bengals prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Jaguars-Bengals predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bengals a 59.1% chance of beating the Jaguars in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 27-25.

Key factors favoring the Bengals:

• Cincinnati Bengals QB Situation
• Cincinnati Bengals Offense
• Cincinnati Bengals QB Matchup

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Jaguars and Bengals each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 51.5 points has a 52.1% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Jacksonville Jaguars Recent Performance
• QB Rating

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Jaguars +2.5 (+108) / Bengals -2.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Jaguars +130, Bengals -133
• Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-102/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Jaguars +2.5 @ 48¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bengals @ 57¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 51.5 @ -102 via DraftKings

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Jaguars vs. Bengals TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Jaguars vs. Bengals?

According to our model, Chase Brown is most likely to score an anytime TD in Jaguars vs. Bengals.

Our projections give Brown a 55.1% chance of scoring a TD at Paycor Stadium, while the running back is a 13.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 44.2% probability
• Parker Washington (WR): 37.0%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 24.7%
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 23.8%
• Jakobi Meyers (WR): 22.8%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 55.1% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 49.2%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 40.9%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 23.1%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 20.1%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bhayshul Tuten (RB): 9.1% prob.
• Parker Washington (WR): 7.2%
• Brenton Strange (TE): 4.4%
• Chris Rodriguez (RB): 4.3%
• Jakobi Meyers (WR): 4.1%

Cincinnati Bengals

• Chase Brown (RB): 13.1% prob.
• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 11.1%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 8.6%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 4.3%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 3.7%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Bengals. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected to have a big game with 265 passing yards, while the Bengals' Joe Burrow is expected to throw for a whopping 272 yards.

Jaguars rushing

• Bhayshul Tuten: 57 yds
• Chris Rodriguez: 23 yds
• Trevor Lawrence: 19 yds

Bengals rushing

• Chase Brown: 68 yds
• Samaje Perine: 19 yds
• Joe Burrow: 13 yds

Jaguars receiving

• Parker Washington: 79 yds
• Jakobi Meyers: 46 yds
• Brenton Strange: 40 yds
• Brian Thomas: 34 yds
• Josh Cameron: 16 yds

Bengals receiving

• Ja'Marr Chase: 87 yds
• Tee Higgins: 66 yds
• Mike Gesicki: 32 yds
• Dohnte Meyers: 25 yds
• Chase Brown: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Bengals and Jaguars at Paycor Stadium is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Paycor Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bengals, with a 59.1% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.