Colts vs. Commanders prediction: Why Indianapolis is favored to win NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Colts-Commanders predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL game between the Colts and Commanders, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Colts a 66.0% chance of defeating the Commanders in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Colts winning 25-21.

Key factors favoring the Colts:

• Indianapolis Colts Offense
• Washington Commanders QB Situation
• Indianapolis Colts Team Rating

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Colts and Commanders each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Colts -4.5 (+100) / Commanders +4.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Colts -199, Commanders +194
• Total: Over/Under 46.5 (+100/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Colts -4.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Commanders @ 34¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 46.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 46.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Colts vs. Commanders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Colts vs. Commanders?

According to our model, Jonathan Taylor is most likely to score an anytime TD in Colts vs. Commanders.

Our projections give Taylor a 66.7% chance of scoring a TD at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the running back is a 19.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 66.7% probability
• Tyler Warren (TE): 35.6%
• Josh Downs (WR): 35.0%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 19.5%
• Daniel Jones (QB): 15.3%

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 48.5% prob.
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 29.8%
• Chig Okonkwo (TE): 20.3%
• Marcus Mariota (QB): 18.1%
• Antonio Williams (WR): 17.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Indianapolis Colts

• Jonathan Taylor (RB): 19.8% prob.
• Tyler Warren (TE): 7.9%
• Josh Downs (WR): 7.8%
• Laquon Treadwell (WR): 3.9%
• Daniel Jones (QB): 3.0%

Washington Commanders

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB): 11.8% prob.
• Stefon Diggs (WR): 6.3%
• Chig Okonkwo (TE): 4.0%
• Marcus Mariota (QB): 3.5%
• Antonio Williams (WR): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Colts and Commanders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Colts' Daniel Jones is projected for 228 passing yards, while the Commanders' Marcus Mariota is expected to throw for 215 yards.

Colts rushing

• Jonathan Taylor: 93 yds
• Daniel Jones: 14 yds
• Seth McGowan: 11 yds

Commanders rushing

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt: 58 yds
• Marcus Mariota: 31 yds
• Kaytron Allen: 17 yds

Colts receiving

• Josh Downs: 76 yds
• Tyler Warren: 57 yds
• Laquon Treadwell: 31 yds
• Jonathan Taylor: 22 yds
• Darius Slayton: 20 yds

Commanders receiving

• Stefon Diggs: 62 yds
• Chig Okonkwo: 34 yds
• Antonio Williams: 33 yds
• Treylon Burks: 25 yds
• Dyami Brown: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 game between the Commanders and Colts at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is scheduled to begin at 9:30 AM ET.

• Who: Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 9:30 AM ET/6:30AM PT
• Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)

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Conclusion

We predict the Colts, with a 66.0% win probability, will likely beat the Commanders in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.