Packers vs. Buccaneers prediction: Why Green Bay is favored to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Packers-Buccaneers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Packers and Buccaneers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Packers a 64.3% chance of defeating the Buccaneers in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Packers winning 20-16.

Key factors favoring the Packers:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Situation
• Green Bay Packers Offense
• Green Bay Packers QB Matchup

According to our model, the Packers (-2.5) have a 60.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 38.5-point over/under has a 50.9% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• QB Rating
• Green Bay Packers Recent Performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Packers -2.5 (-122) / Buccaneers +2.5 (+117)
• Moneyline: Packers -156, Buccaneers +150
• Total: Over/Under 38.5 (-106/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Packers -2.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Packers @ 61¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 38.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Packers -2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Packers vs. Buccaneers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Packers vs. Buccaneers?

According to our model, Christian Watson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Packers vs. Buccaneers.

Our projections give Watson a 38.6% chance of getting in for six at Raymond James Stadium, while the wide receiver is an 11.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 38.6% probability
• Matthew Golden (WR): 27.1%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 25.8%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 24.8%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 24.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 35.1% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 23.3%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 19.7%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 17.8%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 17.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 11.1% prob.
• Matthew Golden (WR): 7.2%
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 6.8%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 6.5%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 6.3%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving (RB): 9.2% prob.
• Emeka Egbuka (WR): 5.6%
• Kenny Gainwell (RB): 4.7%
• Chris Godwin (WR): 4.2%
• Jalon Daniels (QB): 4.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Packers and Buccaneers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Packers' Jordan Love is projected for 244 passing yards. The Buccaneers' Jalon Daniels is expected to throw for just 186 yards.

Packers rushing

• Kaleb Johnson: 31 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 29 yds
• Chris Brooks: 24 yds

Buccaneers rushing

• Bucky Irving: 58 yds
• Jalon Daniels: 32 yds
• Kenny Gainwell: 22 yds

Packers receiving

• Christian Watson: 70 yds
• Matthew Golden: 62 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 43 yds
• Skyy Moore: 23 yds
• Jonnu Smith: 12 yds

Buccaneers receiving

• Emeka Egbuka: 42 yds
• Chris Godwin: 32 yds
• Ted Hurst: 28 yds
• Cade Otton: 28 yds
• Tez Johnson: 16 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Buccaneers and Packers at Raymond James Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Raymond James Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Packers, with a 64.3% win probability, will likely beat the Buccaneers in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.