Broncos vs. 49ers prediction favors San Francisco to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Broncos-49ers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Broncos and 49ers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the 49ers a 62.8% chance of defeating the Broncos in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the 49ers winning 25-22.

Key factors favoring the 49ers:

• San Francisco 49ers Offense
• San Francisco 49ers Team Rating
• San Francisco 49ers QB Situation

According to our model, the 49ers (-2.5) have a 59.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 51.0% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• Denver Broncos Recent Performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 (+108) / 49ers -2.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Broncos +133, 49ers -135
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (+104/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: 49ers -2.5 @ 53¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: 49ers @ 57¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 48.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is 49ers -2.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Broncos vs. 49ers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. 49ers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 4, Christian McCaffrey is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. 49ers.

Our projections give McCaffrey a 55.9% chance of scoring a TD at Levi's Stadium, while the running back is a 14.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 33.4% probability
• RJ Harvey (RB): 32.5%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 28.4%
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 25.7%
• Pat Bryant (WR): 20.0%

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 55.9% prob.
• Mike Evans (WR): 36.1%
• George Kittle (TE): 33.0%
• Deebo Samuel (WR): 26.9%
• Brock Purdy (QB): 19.6%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 6.8% prob.
• RJ Harvey (RB): 6.6%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 5.6%
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 5.0%
• Pat Bryant (WR): 3.8%

San Francisco 49ers

• Christian McCaffrey (RB): 14.3% prob.
• Mike Evans (WR): 7.9%
• George Kittle (TE): 7.0%
• Deebo Samuel (WR): 5.5%
• Brock Purdy (QB): 3.8%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and 49ers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 230 passing yards, while the 49ers' Brock Purdy is expected to throw for 237 yards.

Broncos rushing

• J.K. Dobbins: 59 yds
• RJ Harvey: 25 yds
• Bo Nix: 20 yds

49ers rushing

• Christian McCaffrey: 67 yds
• Kaelon Black: 28 yds
• Brock Purdy: 20 yds

Broncos receiving

• Jaylen Waddle: 62 yds
• Courtland Sutton: 44 yds
• Pat Bryant: 29 yds
• RJ Harvey: 24 yds
• Evan Engram: 22 yds

49ers receiving

• Mike Evans: 60 yds
• George Kittle: 59 yds
• Christian McCaffrey: 41 yds
• Deebo Samuel: 39 yds
• Jacob Cowing: 13 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 game between the 49ers and Broncos at Levi's Stadium is scheduled to commence at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Levi's Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the 49ers, with a 62.8% win probability, will likely beat the Broncos in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.