Cowboys vs. Buccaneers parlay picks: Bet these Thursday Night Football props at boosted +750 odds on bet365

The Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 5 of NFL betting, and with Tampa Bay turning to undrafted rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels for the second-straight game, the Dimers model sees value in three pass catchers who should be busy underneath.

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Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Thursday Night Football preview

The Buccaneers' season has gone sideways in a hurry. Already sitting at 0-3, Baker Mayfield's right thumb injury pushed Jalon Daniels into the starting role last week, and Tampa Bay managed just 14 points against Green Bay in his debut, falling to 0-4.

Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off a win over Houston behind strong performances from Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, pulling the Cowboys back to .500.

The market has taken a firm stance and our model agrees. The Cowboys are 7.5-point favorites with Dallas sitting at -400 and Tampa Bay at +388 on the moneyline, and a total set at 47.5 points.

Even with the Cowboys' leaky secondary, with Daniels under center, the Bucs are unlikely to push the ball downfield often, which funnels volume toward the short and intermediate areas of the field. On the other side, Tampa Bay's defense has to account for Lamb on every snap, and that attention should open up room for Dallas' secondary options.

Our Cowboys vs. Buccaneers same game parlay picks

This three-leg same game parlay leans on target volume and favorable matchups rather than big plays. Each leg sits at a modest 30-yard threshold that the Dimers model projects all three players to clear via our NFL player projections.

Leg 1: Jake Ferguson 30+ receiving yards

The data case: Ferguson has been slow out of the gate, hitting 30 receiving yards in just one of four games this season, largely because of CeeDee Lamb's heavy target share. But the volume floor is still there: Ferguson has seen four or more targets in each of his last 3 games.

This matchup sets up well for him. Tampa Bay has allowed opposing TE1s to post 42, 54 and 78 receiving yards in three of four games. Aside from a long 55-yard catch by Denzel Boston, the Bucs have largely limited No. 1 receivers, which means their game plan will center on bracketing Lamb. That should open lanes underneath for Ferguson.

The Dimers model projects Ferguson for 33 receiving yards, with a 28.4% chance to score a touchdown.

Leg 2: Cade Otton 30+ receiving yards

The data case: Otton has cashed this line in three straight games, drawing six or more targets in each of them.

He was the second-most targeted player for Daniels in the rookie's first start and sits just one target behind Emeka Egbuka for the team lead on the season.

The Cowboys have mostly been beaten through the air by big-bodied receivers, but with Daniels at quarterback, field-stretching plays are less likely to be a focal point for Tampa Bay. That keeps the tight end firmly involved.

Like Ferguson, the Dimers model projects Otton for 33 receiving yards, third on the Buccaneers.

Leg 3: Chris Godwin 30+ receiving yards

The data case: Veteran WR Chris Godwin has cleared 30 receiving yards in three of four games this season, and he was Daniels' most targeted player last week, and on a short turnaround, it makes sense the Bucs will build on where Daniels found success in his first start rather than reinvent the wheel.

The Cowboys' secondary has been generous to receivers; Dallas allowed four wide receivers to hit this mark last week, and two wide receivers did so in both Week 2 and Week 3.

The Dimers model projects Godwin for 35 receiving yards, second on the Buccaneers behind Egbuka.

Bet this Cowboys vs. Buccaneers same game parlay at boosted +750 odds on bet365

Base odds for this same game parlay come out to +625, but with boosted odds at bet365, bettors can get this at +750.

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