Colts vs. Commanders Week 4 predictions: New odds for Jonathan Taylor First TD Scorer Prop

Week 4 heads to London for the NFL International Series: the Indianapolis Colts meet the Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, October 4. An early-morning kickoff Stateside brings a compelling matchup, and the First TD Scorer market is where the biggest payouts live. Indianapolis runs its offense through its lead back as much as any team in the league, and the touchdown market has priced it accordingly. Jonathan Taylor opens as the shortest number on the board to find the end zone first — and Bet365 has posted an interesting First TD Scorer price around him.

Featured Prop: Jonathan Taylor First TD Scorer (+245)

Bet365 is offering odds of +245 on Jonathan Taylor to score the first touchdown of the game against the Commanders.

• The board's clear favorite: Bet365 prices Taylor's Anytime TD at -270, a roughly 73% implied chance and by some distance the shortest anytime number in the game. The next name, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, is out at +115 — an enormous gap, and a sign the book treats a Taylor touchdown as close to an expectation rather than a live question.
• Predictive Value: At +245, the First TD market implies roughly a 29% chance Taylor opens the scoring. That is exceptionally short by First TD standards, and it reflects genuine concentration of red-zone work rather than a speculative longshot — Indianapolis' scoring hierarchy runs through him.
• Game script: A 3.5-point spread and a 47.5-point total point to a competitive game with touchdowns on offer. Indianapolis being favored without the margin blowing out is ideal here: the Colts should stay committed to the run rather than being forced to abandon it.
• The competition: Croskey-Merritt at +650 leads the Washington side of the board, with Tyler Warren next at +850. Josh Downs sits at +950, Keenan Allen at +1100 and Rachaad White at +1200.

Note: Odds in this article are correct at time of publication and subject to change.

Player Props: Colts vs. Commanders

First & Anytime TD Scorer Odds (Bet365)

Colts vs. Commanders betting preview

Explore the interactive widget below to discover the latest spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Colts-Commanders game in London.

Check out all the important details on the game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

The key information you need before the Colts vs. Commanders NFL game.

• Teams: Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. EDT (2:30 p.m. BST)
• Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England
• Event: NFL International Series
• TV: NFL Network
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds (Bet365)

Odds for the key markets in the Colts-Commanders matchup.

• Spread: Colts -3.5 (-110), Commanders +3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Colts -190, Commanders +160
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-105/-115)

The odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Promos

Bet365 Same Game Parlays

Bet365 has posted several featured Same Game Parlays for the London fixture:

• TD Stack (+4500): Tyler Warren to Score a TD + Jacory Croskey-Merritt to Score a TD + Keenan Allen to Score a TD + Terry McLaurin to Score a TD. A $10 stake returns $460.
• Scoring Spree (+330): Both Teams to Score in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Quarters - Yes. A $10 stake returns $43.
• Colts Combo (+850): Colts Moneyline + Daniel Jones 275+ Passing Yards + Daniel Jones 3+ Passing TDs. A $10 stake returns $95.
• Commanders Combo (+625): Commanders Moneyline + Marcus Mariota 225+ Passing Yards + Marcus Mariota 2+ Passing TDs. A $10 stake returns $72.50.

Expert prediction: Colts vs. Commanders

Utilizing state-of-the-art data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of the Colts vs. Commanders matchup. According to Dimers' predictive analytics model, the Colts are more likely to win at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Colts a 65% chance of winning the game, with a projected final score of Colts 27, Commanders 22. The model also leans to the Colts covering the 3.5-point spread, with the projected five-point margin clearing the number. On the total, the model's projected 49-point combined score sits above Bet365's posted 47.5. These predictions and probabilities are accurate at the time of publication but are subject to potential changes.

Colts vs. Commanders best bet

Our top pick for the Colts vs. Commanders game is to bet on the Colts -3.5 (-110) at Bet365. Dimers' model projects a five-point Indianapolis win, which clears the number with a point and a half to spare, and laying -110 on the spread is materially cheaper than the -190 the moneyline demands for the same read on the game. This expert betting advice is based on world-class modeling and valuable betting intelligence, designed to help you make more informed decisions.

Final Thoughts: Colts vs. Commanders

Week 4's London fixture gives US viewers an early Sunday start. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point favorite at -190 on the moneyline, and Bet365's 47.5-point total signals a book expecting both offenses to move the ball at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The headline angle is Jonathan Taylor in the touchdown market. At +245 to strike first, he is the shortest First TD price on the board by a distance — and if you'd rather back him without needing the opening score, Bet365's -270 anytime price is the more conservative route to the same read on Indianapolis' red-zone hierarchy.