5 lopsided matchups that will shape NFL Week 6 player prop betting

Week 6 of the NFL brings a whole new landscape of NFL player props, with the action officially underway after a less-than-entertaining TNF matchup between the Seahawks and Broncos. Now we turn the page to NFL Sunday (and Monday Night Football) with an eye on the most lopsided matchups for NFL betting.

Five Week 6 games feature an offensive or defensive unit at one end of the league rankings meeting its opposite, like the league's worst rushing defense in the Cowboys against the league's worst rushing offense in the Packers.

Some of those mismatches look like layups on paper, while others show less of an impact than you might expect in our NFL player projections. Our goal is to find the best angles for individual players to capitalize on those matchups, whether via prop ladder play, cashing a touchdown prop or for building NFL parlays.

Here are five matchups that stand out the most, and how to read them through Dimers' Week 6 NFL predictions.

Texans vs. Jaguars: 31st rush offense vs. the league's best run defense

We start off bright and early on Sunday morning as Texans vs. Jaguars takes an AFC South rivalry to London on Sunday morning, and the Texans arrive with a new lead back.

The matchup: Texans RB Woody Marks took over the Houston backfield in Week 5 after David Montgomery left the 26-3 win over Tennessee with a groin injury in the second quarter, and Marks finished with season highs of 19 touches and 85 scrimmage yards, seeing nearly 100% of snaps with every backfield touch once Montgomery went down.

Woody Marks carries a touchdown edge against the Jaguars in London.

The workload is real, but the efficiency isn't quite there yet. Marks is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, and Houston is the first team since the 2012 Cardinals with two backs on 40-plus carries averaging under 3.5 yards. Now he gets a Jaguars front allowing a league-low 42.0 rushing yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry to running backs.

What the Dimers data says: Our model is pushing back on the narrative. Marks projects for 56.2 rushing yards, above what Jacksonville allows to entire backfields on average and over his line of 47.5 yards.

His touchdown chance sits at 45.5%, with an 11.6% chance to score first. His touchdown prop carries an edge as well. This is a situation where it looks like the model trusts volume over the matchup, though he may not reach the levels we cashed with his ladder play last week.

Saints at Giants: Most rush TDs allowed vs. a one-rush-TD offense

Moving to the afternoon and Saints vs. Giants, with an offense now led by QB Jameis Winston, after Jaxson Dart was ruled out for the regular season after knee surgery.

The matchup: New Orleans has allowed more rushing touchdowns than any defense in the league and the only team to allow double-digit rushing scores this year with 10.

On the flipside, the Giants have scored just one on the ground all season, RB Cam Skattebo way back in Week 1 against a similarly poor rushing defense, the Cowboys. The Saints rank 30th against the run with 744 rushing yards allowed. This is the week New York's rushing touchdown drought should end, if it's going to.

The projected Giants backfield split vs. the Saints.

What the Dimers data says: Despite his fumble issues, the data again points to Skattebo. He projects for 62.7 rushing yards with a 46.7% chance to score, 13.1% to score twice and 11.3% to score first.

Najee Harris is the secondary piece at 33.4 rushing yards and a 23.0% touchdown chance, which is notable for a back seeing limited snaps. Against the league's most generous goal-line defense, even the No. 2 back carries scoring equity, and he even carries a touchdown edge per our model.

Titans at Colts: A leaky pass defense vs. the second-worst pass offense

Second-year QB Cam Ward leads winless Tennessee into Titans vs. Colts against a secondary that has struggled all year.

The matchup: Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the league, 254 per game, while Tennessee's passing offense ranks 31st. The question is whether a bad Colts pass defense is enough to lift Ward, who's cleared 200 passing yards just once. He's thrown a pick in three straight games, but the Colts have the third-worst INT % in the NFL.

What the Dimers data says:  Ward projects for 19.6 completions and 208.0 passing yards, his second game over 200 and clearing his line of 205.5, but still well short of the 254 Indianapolis has been giving up per game.

The player most worth watching in this game is rookie WR Carnell Tate. The rookie WR had his best game in Ward's best game, with 145 yards on 9 catches, but he is tied with Falcons WR Drake London for the most targets (37) in the NFL without a receiving touchdown this year. Interestingly, despite their passing game issues, the Colts have not allowed a No. 1 WR to score a touchdown since Zay Flowers in Week 1.

A close split between the Titans' top two passing game targets.

Tate projects for 4.6 catches and 59.1 yards, while WR Wan'Dale Robinson, in his first season in Tennessee, projects for 4.2 and 44.1. Robinson has the slightly better touchdown chance and carries the value (22.6% to 21.1%), while Tate is the yardage play with 60+ yards in reach.

With a pair of tough defenses in the Vikings and Jaguars coming up, this might be Tate's best chance to score until Week 9 vs. the Cowboys.

Cowboys at Packers: Worst rush offense vs. worst rush defense

Sunday Night Football at Lambeau brings Cowboys vs. Packers, two teams whose run games sit at the bottom of the league, from opposite sides of the ball.

The matchup: Green Bay runs for a league-worst 60 yards per game, while Dallas allows a league-worst 168.4. The Packers also have the league's lowest rush rate at 33.7%, and opponents run on Dallas more than on any other defense, at 53.2%. Something has to give.

"Lead back" RB MarShawn Lloyd handled early-down work last week and scored twice, the Packers' first rushing scores of the year.

What the Dimers data says: The model leans into the matchup, but not by much on yardage. Lloyd projects for 44.8 rushing yards. With a line of 43.5 against a team allowing nearly 170 per game, that should tell you plenty about even the sportsbooks' difficulty in projecting this backfield. His bigger impact is getting in the end zone behind a 48.9% chance to score, 14.6% to score twice and 10.6% to score first.

Our projections for the Packers backfield in Week 6.The rest of the backfield is where it gets interesting. Pierre Strong (23.3%) projects for a better touchdown chance than Kaleb Johnson (16.1%), despite Johnson's 24.0 projected rushing yards against Strong's 19.4.

Strong handled 5 carries in his first action last week, but his usage in the passing game (4 targets) gives him a path to touches that Johnson doesn't have.

Commanders at 49ers: Most pass TDs allowed vs. most pass TDs thrown

In the last game of the week, San Francisco, the class of the NFC so far, hosts Washington on Monday Night Football in Commanders vs. 49ers.

The matchup: No offense has thrown more touchdowns (13) than the 49ers, and no defense has allowed more than the Commanders, tied with the Cardinals and Lions at 14 allowed.

Washington has given up a league-high 55 fourth-quarter points, and Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston have each thrown three or more touchdowns against them.

What the Dimers data says: The model spreads the touchdown upside across the 49ers' pass catchers rather than piling it on one name, with both WR Mike Evans and TE George Kittle projected for over 60 yards and at least a 43% touchdown probability.

Our projections for the 49ers vs. the Commanders on MNF.Despite being a running back, Christian McCaffrey is the headline. He projects for 4.2 catches and 40.1 receiving yards on top of his rushing work, both highs for any RB this week, and his 65.7% touchdown chance is the second-highest of any player in Week 6.

A 9.4% chance at three touchdowns shows how often the model sees him dominating the red zone.

Key takeaways

Lopsided matchups don't always produce lopsided projections.

The Dimers model buys the Giants' run game and the 49ers' passing attack, while it's more cautious on Woody Marks' efficiency and the distribution of volume for the Packers' backfield.

Dig into our full Week 6 NFL projections on Dimers to find your own angles.

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