The 3 players destined to score their first TD of 2026 in NFL Week 5

Anytime touchdown props are one of the most fun NFL betting markets, but finding the right spot takes more than picking the best player on the field. Volume, quarterback play and the defense across the line all have to line up.

Last week, we hit on 2 of our 3 picks found using the Dimers data.

In Week 5, three players check every box. Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is still waiting on his first touchdown of 2026, Falcons WR Drake London is on the rise with his starting quarterback back under center, and Lions WR Jameson Williams draws one of the best passing matchups in the league, all with strong Dimers backing from our NFL predictions.

Each player is drawing steady volume, faces a defense that has been giving up production to his position, and carries one of the highest touchdown probabilities in his game this week.

Here's how the Dimers data lines up for all three.

Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 45.7%

Jaylen Warren has been a key piece of the Pittsburgh offense, but he's still searching for his first touchdown of 2026 after tallying a career-high 8 last season, and the Steelers are one of just two teams without a rushing touchdown this season.

Pittsburgh's ground game isn't broken, it's just been unlucky. Warren has 55 carries for 309 yards and 13 catches for 143 yards through four games, and he's drawn 4+ targets in every one of them. With Rico Dowdle sidelined by a toe injury, Warren handled 17 carries in both games without him.

The matchup in Colts vs. Steelers is a good one for Warren. Indianapolis ranks 26th in yards allowed and has given up 5 rushing touchdowns, 25th in the league, and the Colts are coming back from a trip to London while Pittsburgh enjoys extra rest after playing on Thursday.

Our projections for Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle in Week 5.

Dowdle could return this week, which would bring back the one-two backfield split.

But even with Dowdle factored into our projections, the Dimers model still gives Warren a 45.7% chance to score, nearly 10% higher than Dowdle, and as a two-dimensional back who can get there on the ground or through the air, he's well positioned to end Pittsburgh's rushing touchdown drought.

Drake London (Falcons)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 34.4%

With Michael Penix Jr. back under center, it feels like only a matter of time before Drake London finds the end zone.

His splits with and without Penix in his career are staggering. This season alone, the gap is huge. In two games with backup Cooper Rush, London managed just 6 catches for 80 yards. In two games with Penix, he's posted 14 catches for 290 yards.

The one thing holding him back has been red-zone usage. Atlanta's strong run game inside the 20 has limited how often London is targeted near the goal line. But Ravens vs. Falcons on Sunday Night Football is the kind of game that could force the Falcons to throw.

Baltimore has let every team it's led this season climb back into the game, and it simply hasn't been able to contain No. 1 receivers. In three straight weeks, the Ravens allowed a career-high 145 yards to Carnell Tate, 86 yards to Chris Olave and 112 yards to CeeDee Lamb.

The Dimers model gives London a 34.4% chance to score, making him the third most likely touchdown scorer in the game. With his quarterback healthy and delivering, plus a secondary that keeps getting beaten by WR1s, this is a strong spot for his first trip to the end zone.

Jameson Williams (Lions)

Dimers anytime TD probability: 29.9%

Jameson Williams and Drake London have something in common this season. They're two of just eight wide receivers in the NFL with at least 25 targets and zero touchdowns.

For Williams, the drought is out of character. He caught 7 receiving touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and has added a pair of rushing scores in his career, so the big-play ability is there. He's also coming off his best game of the year, catching 6 of 8 targets for 102 yards against Carolina.

The timing couldn't be better for him in Lions vs. Cardinals. Arizona has allowed 11 passing touchdowns, tied for the most in the NFL, and has given up 36 points in back-to-back games and 30+ points three times this season.

The Dimers model gives Williams a 29.9% chance to score, and the rest of our Lions projections also point to a positive day for Williams. We have probability leans to the under on Sam LaPorta's receiving yards and under on Amon-Ra St. Brown's receptions, which could funnel more of Jared Goff's looks toward Williams against a secondary that has struggled to keep anyone out of the end zone.

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