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Read Article World Cup Predictions: Four ways to bet on England's dominant defense in tournament opener vs. Croatia
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
After conceding zero goals in their eight qualifying matches, we look at four ways to bet on England's dominant defense in their opening match vs. Croatia.
Another day, another lineup of World Cup action as England kicks off their 2026 FIFA World Cup campaign against long-time rival Croatia on Wednesday, June 17, in a marquee Group L showdown at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, a rematch of the 2018 World Cup semifinal that Croatia famously won 2-1 after extra time.
While that painful memory haunts England's supporters, this is a different era for the team and World Cup bettors. The English arrive at the tournament in historically dominant form, having swept through all eight of their World Cup qualifying matches without conceding a single goal while netting 22 of their own, led by Harry Kane, who headlines today's World Cup parlay. It's a rare combination of attacking firepower and defensive excellence that gives England's opening match more than a few compelling bets to consider from the Dimers Pro data with this specific low-scoring angle in mind.
Croatia is no pushover, as the side won seven of eight qualifiers while conceding just four goals of their own, meaning any positive results beyond a draw for England will be a test of offensive resolve as much as defensive dominance.
Using the elite Dimers Pro data and our World Cup prediction models, let's look at four ways to bet on England's dominant defensive identity in their opening World Cup match vs. Croatia.
Four Ways to Bet on England vs. Croatia [June 17, 2026]
If you're looking for more than England vs. Croatia betting angles, check out today's World Cup Cheat Sheet!
Both Teams to Score: No (-120 via DraftKings)
The most direct translation of England's zero-goals-allowed qualifying record is a simple bet against Croatia finding the net. England kept eight consecutive clean sheets across their qualifying campaign, and Croatia's attack, while efficient in their own group, was not exactly lighting up scoreboards against elite opposition.
England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is battle-tested, and a disciplined Tuchel defensive structure built around Declan Rice's recovery work gives Croatia very few paths to goal.
Dimers gives Both Teams to Score: No a 54.5% probability, creating fair odds right at -120. It's the most straightforward way to ride England's defensive dominance without taking on extra risk like the three bets below, and at a fair price, it's the most accessible entry point in this match.
England Win to Nil (+155 via BetMGM)
If you believe England's clean sheet and victory run carries over to the World Cup stage, and the evidence is compelling that it should, the Win to Nil market offers a significant odds boost over the outright moneyline.
England winning without conceding combines two things this squad has proven extremely good at: winning football matches, and keeping the opposition off the scoresheet entirely, going a perfect 8-for-8 in qualifiers in both.
Dimers puts England's Win to Nil probability at 35.9%, and at +155 on BetMGM, you're paying a little more than our fair price of +178, but if you're strictly looking for probability, it's our most likely of the possible results in this market.
For bettors unwilling to back the minus odds on the outright moneyline, this is a play worth a look.
England 1-0 Correct Score (+500 via FanDuel)
For those who want to take a precise swing, the England 1-0 correct score at +500 on FanDuel deserves your attention.
Dimers models give this result a 13.7% probability, so not quite a fair play at +625, but it is the strongest exact score probability on the board, and aligns with several other datapoints, like England to win (57.5%), Under 2.5 goals (54.4%) and both of the above bets.
With Croatia likely to sit deep and frustrate, a single Harry Kane header or a Jude Bellingham strike may well be the difference in a game where scoring could come at a premium compared to yesterday's goalfest.
England 2-0 Correct Score (+700 via DraftKings)
The most ambitious of the bunch, a 2-0 England victory at +700 on DraftKings carries the highest ceiling and still sits at 11.5% probability according to Dimers' models, nearly at our fair price of +760.
England scored three or more goals in five of their eight qualifying matches, including a 5-0 demolition of Serbia and a 3-0 result over Latvia, so blowout wins are well within this squad's capability, and a 2-0 result doesn't require them to reach that ceiling.
This bet captures the best of England, their elite defense coupled with their scoring ability.
For a bigger longshot, consider pairing this with a Kane anytime scorer or Bellingham shot on target prop to build a boosted World Cup parlay with strong plus-money upside.
Bet the World Cup 2026 with confidence
The expanded 48-team format means more chaos, more betting opportunities, and more variance in team performance.
Having access to Dimers' World Cup predictions gives you a significant edge—whether you’re building World Cup parlays, targeting specific matchups, or just hunting for value across the various player props markets.
Dimers combines deep coverage of every World Cup match with transparent, science-backed player projections so you can bet smarter, understand the “why” behind the numbers, and enjoy betting on the World Cup with confidence.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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