...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Jets vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Winnipeg Jets vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Winnipeg Jets are scheduled to meet in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.
The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Jets vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Jets vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Jets and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 61% chance of defeating the Jets.
According to our model, the Jets (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 56% chance of going over.
Jets vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Jets | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+136) |
| Moneyline | +155 | -184 |
| Total | o5.5 (-110) | u5.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Jets vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Jets +1.5 | -160 |
| Moneyline | Jets | +155 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.
Jets vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Jets vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Nikita Kucherov is most likely to score an anytime goal in Jets vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Kucherov a 41.5% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 33.9% |
| Mark Scheifele | 31.5% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 25.1% |
| Jonathan Toews | 20.4% |
| Cole Perfetti | 18.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 41.5% |
| Jake Guentzel | 41.2% |
| Brandon Hagel | 36.2% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 23.3% |
| Darren Raddysh | 22.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 6.7% |
| Mark Scheifele | 6.3% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 4.9% |
| Jonathan Toews | 3.6% |
| Cole Perfetti | 3.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 9.0% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.6% |
| Brandon Hagel | 7.2% |
| Darren Raddysh | 4.0% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.0% |
Jets vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Jets at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Winnipeg Jets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Jets on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jets vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
Advertiser disclosure