Capitals vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [2/28/2026]

The Montreal Canadiens will square off with the Washington Capitals in NHL action at Bell Centre on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Canadiens as the most likely winner of the Capitals vs. Canadiens game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Caps vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Capitals and Canadiens 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Canadiens a 57% chance of beating the Capitals.

According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Capitals vs. Canadiens odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Capitals	Canadiens
Puck Line	+1.5 (-180)	-1.5 (+154)
Moneyline	+136	-160
Total	o6.5 (-122)	u6.5 (+110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Capitals vs. Canadiens picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Capitals +1.5	-180
Moneyline	Capitals	+136
Total	Under 6.5	+110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Capitals vs. Canadiens player props

Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Canadiens?

According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Canadiens.

Our projections give Caufield a 44.4% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is a 9.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Washington Capitals

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Tom Wilson	29.5%
Aliaksei Protas	26.9%
Alex Ovechkin	26.3%
Dylan Strome	24.4%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	22.7%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	44.4%
Nick Suzuki	31.9%
Ivan Demidov	27.7%
Juraj Slafkovsky	24.6%
Alex Newhook	21.3%

First goal scorer predictions

Washington Capitals

Player	First Goal Probability
Tom Wilson	5.7%
Alex Ovechkin	5.3%
Aliaksei Protas	4.5%
Dylan Strome	4.2%
Pierre-Luc Dubois	3.9%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	9.6%
Nick Suzuki	6.2%
Ivan Demidov	4.7%
Juraj Slafkovsky	4.5%
Alex Newhook	3.9%

Caps vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Canadiens and Capitals at Bell Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Washington Capitals vs. Montreal Canadiens
• Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Bell Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Canadiens, with a 57% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Canadiens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.