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Capitals vs. Red Wings prediction: Detroit favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Washington Capitals vs Detroit Red Wings predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Detroit Red Wings will face the Washington Capitals, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Little Caesars Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:30 PM ET.
The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.
The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Red Wings a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Capitals.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Capitals vs. Red Wings matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Caps vs. Red Wings prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Capitals and Red Wings 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Red Wings a 53% chance of defeating the Capitals.
According to our model, the Capitals (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Capitals vs. Red Wings odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Capitals | Red Wings |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+185) |
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Capitals vs. Red Wings picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Capitals +1.5 | -220 |
| Moneyline | Capitals | +110 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Capitals vs. Red Wings player props
Who will score a goal in Capitals vs. Red Wings?
According to our model, Alex DeBrincat is most likely to score an anytime goal in Capitals vs. Red Wings.
Our projections give DeBrincat a 40.7% chance of scoring a goal at Little Caesars Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas | 32.8% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 30.6% |
| Dylan Strome | 30.3% |
| Tom Wilson | 26.7% |
| Ryan Leonard | 22.4% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 40.7% |
| Dylan Larkin | 33.2% |
| Lucas Raymond | 28.2% |
| Patrick Kane | 23.0% |
| James van Riemsdyk | 20.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Washington Capitals
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Aliaksei Protas | 6.4% |
| Dylan Strome | 5.9% |
| Alex Ovechkin | 5.7% |
| Tom Wilson | 5.4% |
| Ryan Leonard | 4.0% |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat | 8.4% |
| Dylan Larkin | 6.4% |
| Lucas Raymond | 5.0% |
| Andrew Copp | 4.1% |
| Patrick Kane | 4.0% |
Caps vs. Red Wings game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's action between the Red Wings and Capitals at Little Caesars Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Washington Capitals vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Red Wings, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Capitals on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Capitals vs. Red Wings insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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