Golden Knights vs. Penguins prediction: Why Vegas is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [3/1/2026]

The Pittsburgh Penguins will face the Vegas Golden Knights, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at PPG Paints Arena on Sunday, commencing at 1:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Golden Knights a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Penguins.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Golden Knights vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Golden Knights vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NHL matchup between the Golden Knights and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Golden Knights a 54% chance of defeating the Penguins.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 67% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.

Golden Knights vs. Penguins odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Golden Knights	Penguins
Puck Line	-1.5 (+160)	+1.5 (-190)
Moneyline	-150	+130
Total	o6.5 (-110)	u6.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Golden Knights vs. Penguins picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Penguins +1.5	-190
Moneyline	Penguins	+130
Total	Under 6.5	-105

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Penguins to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Golden Knights vs. Penguins player props

Who will score a goal in Golden Knights vs. Penguins?

According to our model, Pavel Dorofeyev is most likely to score an anytime goal in Golden Knights vs. Penguins.

Our projections give Dorofeyev a 37.7% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is a 6.8% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Pavel Dorofeyev	37.7%
Tomas Hertl	33.2%
Jack Eichel	31.5%
Ivan Barbashev	25.1%
Mark Stone	24.2%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Rickard Rakell	30.8%
Bryan Rust	28.9%
Avery Hayes	26.9%
Evgeni Malkin	22.8%
Anthony Mantha	22.3%

First goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	First Goal Probability
Tomas Hertl	6.9%
Pavel Dorofeyev	6.8%
Jack Eichel	5.5%
Mitch Marner	4.5%
Mark Stone	4.4%

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Rickard Rakell	5.9%
Bryan Rust	5.1%
Avery Hayes	4.7%
Yegor Chinakhov	4.6%
Thomas Novak	3.9%

Golden Knights vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's matchup between the Penguins and Golden Knights at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to commence at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
• Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: PPG Paints Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Golden Knights, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Golden Knights vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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