Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Game 1 [2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs]

The Colorado Avalanche will face the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Ball Arena on Wednesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 1 matchup.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Golden Knights vs. Avs prediction: Who will win Game 1?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL Playoffs game between the Golden Knights and Avalanche, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Avalanche a 60% chance of beating the Golden Knights in Game 1 of the series.

According to our model, the Golden Knights (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of six goals has a 51% chance of staying under.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 1 odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Golden Knights	Avalanche
Puck Line	+1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+144)
Moneyline	+145	-172
Total	o6 (-120)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche picks and best bet for Game 1

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Golden Knights +1.5	-170
Moneyline	Golden Knights	+145
Total	Under 6	+100

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche player props

Who will score a goal in Golden Knights vs. Avalanche?

According to our model, Nathan MacKinnon is most likely to score an anytime goal in Golden Knights vs. Avalanche.

Our projections give MacKinnon a 37.2% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is a 7.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Pavel Dorofeyev	31.9%
Jack Eichel	29.0%
Mitch Marner	27.7%
Brett Howden	25.2%
Ivan Barbashev	23.5%

Colorado Avalanche

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	37.2%
Martin Necas	30.2%
Gabriel Landeskog	28.8%
Valeri Nichushkin	27.0%
Artturi Lehkonen	24.5%

First goal scorer predictions

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	First Goal Probability
Pavel Dorofeyev	6.6%
Jack Eichel	5.6%
Mitch Marner	5.0%
Brett Howden	4.6%
Ivan Barbashev	4.5%

Colorado Avalanche

Player	First Goal Probability
Nathan MacKinnon	7.6%
Martin Necas	5.8%
Gabriel Landeskog	5.3%
Valeri Nichushkin	5.1%
Artturi Lehkonen	4.8%

Golden Knights vs. Avs Game 1 updates and essential details

Wednesday's Game 1 between the Avalanche and Golden Knights in the NHL Playoffs is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Vegas Golden Knights vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is the National Hockey League's postseason elimination tournament to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Golden Knights and Avalanche, made the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Golden Knights in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

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