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Trade of the Day: Find baseball value in San Francisco vs. New York on OG prediction market
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Dimers has partnered with OG, a prediction market where you can trade on this year's baseball season. Here's where our model finds value on Wednesday, March 25 .
The 2026 baseball season has finally arrived and the Dimers data is ready to help you maximize your profit on Opening Night. Alongside our new prediction market partner OG, our model has flagged a potential edge in New York vs. San Francisco.
Here’s what the data shows and how you can trade the outcome on OG, the federally regulated prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com.
The Edge at a Glance - San Francisco vs. New York
| New York | San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers Model | 51% | 49% |
| OG Market Price | 54% | 47% |
| Edge | -3% | 2% |
In a matchup that projects as nearly a coin flip by the Dimers model, we see the public trading on San Francisco to win at a lower probability than predicted.
What the Data Says
The Dimers model gives San Francisco a 49% win probability, compared to the market on OG at 47%, creating a 2% edge in our favor.
Logan Webb takes the mound for his fifth straight Opening Day start, boasting a career 3.22 ERA, while New York counters with Max Fried (2.86 ERA, 19 wins last season).
In prediction market terms: if you believe the Dimers model is closer to the true probability than the current market price, that gap is where potential value may exist.
You can trade a contract on New York to win the championship directly on OG for a better price than our model implies.
Example Trade Breakdown
Here’s how a San Francisco to win contract might look on OG:
| Contract cost | $10.00 |
| Payout if correct | $10.40 |
| Maximum loss | $10.00 |
| Implied market probability | 47% (OG market price) |
| Dimers model probability | 49% |
⚠️ Fees may apply. OG may charge trading fees that affect your net payout. Always check the full contract details on OG before placing a trade. Your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every order.
How to Trade This on OG
If you’re already signed up, here’s the straightforward workflow:
Open OG and search for New York vs. San Francisco under pro baseball
Select San Francisco to win
Review the contract price, potential payout, and maximum loss — all displayed upfront.
Enter your trade amount and confirm. You can also close your position early at the prevailing market price before the game settles.
If San Francisco wins and your trade settles in the money, your payout is credited to your account.
Not yet on OG? Sign up via our link → dime.rs/og
We may earn a commission when you sign up through our link.
Learn more about OG's college basketball tournament bonus offer.
Why This Approach
You’re not following a tip. You’re comparing two independent data points - a quantitative model output and a live market price - and deciding whether the gap is significant enough to act on. That’s what informed trading looks like.
OG is not a sportsbook. It’s a federally regulated financial exchange operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange. You trade against the market, not a house. There is no user limiting; winning is encouraged.
What is OG?
OG is a prediction market platform powered by Crypto.com and operated by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) - a CFTC-regulated exchange. That means it operates under the same federal regulatory framework that governs futures markets, not under state-by-state sportsbook licensing.
Instead of betting against a house, you buy and sell event contracts. Each contract’s price directly reflects the market’s implied probability that an event will occur, so everything is expressed as a percentage, not traditional odds. No conversion, no mental math.
A few things that make OG different:
No user limiting: sharp traders and high-volume users won’t be restricted or banned for winning. You trade against the market.
Transparent pricing: your potential profit, maximum loss, and settlement rules are stated upfront on every trade.
Wide market coverage: sports, politics, economics, entertainment, and more. Includes moneyline, spread, total, player props, and parlays.
Available to eligible users across most of the United States: see og.com for state-by-state details.
Availability by State
OG is available to eligible users across most of the United States.
New York and Arizona residents cannot trade on any markets. Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois residents cannot trade on sports contracts but may trade other categories.
Visit og.com for the full list of eligible states.
RISK DISCLOSURE
Trading involves risk of loss. Identifying a probability edge does not guarantee a winning trade — the event outcome is always uncertain and you may lose the full amount of your contract. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or trading advice. Predictions are event contracts that are derivatives products offered by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a CFTC-regulated exchange through OG technology. Terms apply. Visit og.com for full details.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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