...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken prediction: Seattle favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [1/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Seattle Kraken predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Seattle Kraken will face the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Climate Pledge Arena on Thursday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.
The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Kraken a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Maple Leafs.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Kraken matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Kraken 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Kraken a 51% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Kraken (+1.5) have a 71% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Kraken |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+210) | +1.5 (-250) |
| Moneyline | -113 | -102 |
| Total | o6.5 (+100) | u6.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Kraken +1.5 | -250 |
| Moneyline | Kraken | -102 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -115 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Kraken?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Kraken.
Our projections give Matthews a 45.7% chance of scoring a goal at Climate Pledge Arena, while the star is a 10.3% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 45.7% |
| John Tavares | 30.8% |
| Matthew Knies | 29.0% |
| Bobby McMann | 25.9% |
| Matias Maccelli | 21.3% |
Seattle Kraken
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jared McCann | 28.1% |
| Jordan Eberle | 27.6% |
| Matty Beniers | 26.2% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 25.1% |
| Jaden Schwartz | 21.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 10.3% |
| John Tavares | 6.1% |
| Matthew Knies | 5.2% |
| Bobby McMann | 5.0% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.7% |
Seattle Kraken
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle | 5.2% |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 5.0% |
| Jared McCann | 4.7% |
| Matty Beniers | 4.6% |
| Jaden Schwartz | 4.0% |
Maple Leafs vs. Kraken game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Kraken and Maple Leafs at Climate Pledge Arena is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Seattle Kraken
- Date: Thursday, January 29, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Kraken, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Kraken insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure