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Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [4/15/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Wednesday.
The Ottawa Senators will take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Senators as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Senators game.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction: Who will win?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Senators, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Senators a 64% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the 6.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +165 | -192 |
| Total | o6.5 (+110) | u6.5 (+110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +165 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators?
According to our model, Drake Batherson is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
Our projections give Batherson a 44.9% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 9.0% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 43.4% |
| John Tavares | 39.9% |
| Matthew Knies | 33.9% |
| Easton Cowan | 20.2% |
| Matias Maccelli | 17.3% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Drake Batherson | 44.9% |
| Shane Pinto | 43.5% |
| Dylan Cozens | 38.6% |
| Warren Foegele | 30.9% |
| Ridly Greig | 30.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 8.8% |
| John Tavares | 8.7% |
| Matthew Knies | 6.7% |
| Easton Cowan | 3.2% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.0% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Shane Pinto | 9.1% |
| Drake Batherson | 9.0% |
| Dylan Cozens | 7.0% |
| Warren Foegele | 6.2% |
| Ridly Greig | 5.5% |
Maple Leafs vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's action between the Senators and Maple Leafs at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to start at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Wednesday, April 15, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Wednesday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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