Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/21/2026]

The Ottawa Senators will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Senators as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Senators game.

This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Senators a 66% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 55% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Senators
Puck Line	+1.5 (+106)	-1.5 (-120)
Moneyline	+260	-310
Total	o6 (-120)	u6 (+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	+106
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+260
Total	Under 6	+100

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators?

According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators.

Our projections give Nylander a 40.7% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 7.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
William Nylander	40.7%
John Tavares	36.8%
Matthew Knies	32.9%
Benoit-Olivier Groulx	25.5%
Matias Maccelli	23.4%

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	37.3%
Tim Stutzle	34.5%
Drake Batherson	29.0%
Dylan Cozens	28.0%
Shane Pinto	25.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
John Tavares	7.9%
William Nylander	7.6%
Matthew Knies	6.5%
Benoit-Olivier Groulx	4.7%
Matias Maccelli	3.9%

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	7.0%
Tim Stutzle	6.8%
Drake Batherson	5.2%
Shane Pinto	5.0%
Dylan Cozens	4.9%

Maple Leafs vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's game between the Senators and Maple Leafs at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
• Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 66% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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