Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Maple Leafs
2
5
Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Canadian Tire Centre
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1 2
Senators
1 2 2 5
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Senators
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1 2
Senators
1 2 2 5
P3 18:59 Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:16 Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P3 17:59 Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:35 Power play - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:44 Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 16:19 Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 16:03 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 14:51 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 14:40 Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
P3 14:19 Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:10 Ridly Greig shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 11:37 Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
P3 11:04 Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
P3 09:40 Goal scored by Michael Amadio assisted by Jordan Spence and Shane Pinto
P3 08:00 Warren Foegele shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 06:41 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 06:09 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 06:01 Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
P3 05:49 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:07 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:21
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
  3. P3 19:15
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Nick Cousins in defensive zone
  4. P3 19:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  5. P3 19:00
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
  6. P3 18:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
  7. P3 18:16
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
  8. P3 17:59
    SHOT
    Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
  9. P3 17:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  10. P3 17:15
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Equipment
  11. P3 16:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  12. P3 16:19
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  13. P3 16:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  14. P3 15:55
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  15. P3 15:41
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  16. P3 15:41
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
  17. P3 14:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
  18. P3 14:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
  19. P3 14:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
  20. P3 13:11
    Max Domi won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
  21. P3 13:10
    SHOT
    Ridly Greig shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  22. P3 12:13
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
  23. P3 12:11
    Nikolas Matinpalo credited with hit on Simon Benoit in neutral zone
  24. P3 11:37
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
  25. P3 11:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  26. P3 11:20
    Stoppage - Offside
  27. P3 11:04
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
  28. P3 09:40
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Michael Amadio assisted by Jordan Spence and Shane Pinto
    2-4
  29. P3 09:34
    Claude Giroux won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  30. P3 08:43
    Takeaway by Nick Cousins in defensive zone
  31. P3 08:00
    SHOT
    Warren Foegele shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  32. P3 07:19
    Giveaway by Michael Amadio in defensive zone
  33. P3 06:54
    John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  34. P3 06:41
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  35. P3 06:09
    SHOT
    Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
  36. P3 06:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
  37. P3 05:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  38. P3 05:41
    Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Equipment
  39. P3 05:22
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  40. P3 05:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  41. P3 04:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Linus Ullmark
  42. P3 03:24
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  43. P3 03:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  44. P3 03:19
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  45. P3 02:19
    Giveaway by Bo Groulx in defensive zone
  46. P3 01:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Dakota Joshua
  47. P3 00:43
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
  48. P3 00:43
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  49. P3 00:00
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
  50. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  51. P2 19:37
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  52. P2 19:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Senators saved by Joseph Woll
  53. P2 19:01
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  54. P2 19:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bo Groulx saved by Linus Ullmark
  55. P2 18:28
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  56. P2 18:14
    GOAL
    Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by Easton Cowan and Brandon Carlo
    1-3
  57. P2 17:53
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  58. P2 17:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Michael Amadio
  59. P2 17:12
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  60. P2 17:00
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
  61. P2 15:37
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
  62. P2 15:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  63. P2 15:04
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  64. P2 15:04
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  65. P2 15:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
  66. P2 13:57
    SHOT
    Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  67. P2 13:27
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
  68. P2 13:00
    Stoppage - Icing
  69. P2 11:38
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
  70. P2 10:49
    Shorthanded - Bo Groulx won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  71. P2 10:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
  72. P2 09:51
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  73. P2 09:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  74. P2 09:43
    Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  75. P2 09:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
  76. P2 09:09
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Claude Giroux
    0-2
  77. P2 08:51
    SHOT
    Bo Groulx shot blocked by Dennis Gilbert
  78. P2 08:26
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  79. P2 08:24
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Ridly Greig
  80. P2 07:32
    SHOT
    Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
  81. P2 06:34
    Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  82. P2 06:34
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  83. P2 06:07
    Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  84. P2 06:07
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  85. P2 04:50
    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
  86. P2 04:43
    SHOT
    Shane Pinto shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  87. P2 04:31
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
  88. P2 03:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
  89. P2 02:51
    SHOT
    Dennis Gilbert shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  90. P2 02:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  91. P2 01:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
  92. P2 01:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
  93. P2 01:09
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nick Cousins
  94. P2 00:52
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
  95. P2 00:50
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
  96. P2 00:47
    Stoppage - Icing
  97. P2 00:00
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
  98. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  99. P1 19:19
    Drake Batherson credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  100. P1 18:56
    Max Domi won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
  101. P1 18:56
    Stoppage - Icing
  102. P1 17:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jordan Spence
  103. P1 17:45
    John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  104. P1 17:45
    Stoppage - Offside
  105. P1 17:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
  106. P1 16:38
    Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  107. P1 16:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
  108. P1 16:17
    Lars Eller won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
  109. P1 15:00
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Jordan Spence in neutral zone
  110. P1 14:58
    John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
  111. P1 14:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  112. P1 14:18
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  113. P1 14:12
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  114. P1 14:12
    Penalty to Matias Maccelli 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Lars Eller)
  115. P1 13:45
    SHOT
    William Nylander shot blocked by Shane Pinto
  116. P1 12:27
    Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
  117. P1 12:06
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  118. P1 11:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
  119. P1 11:09
    Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  120. P1 11:05
    SHOT
    Jordan Spence shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  121. P1 11:02
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
  122. P1 11:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
  123. P1 09:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Artem Zub
  124. P1 09:00
    Max Domi won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
  125. P1 08:37
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Linus Ullmark
  126. P1 08:27
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  127. P1 08:27
    Penalty to Dennis Gilbert 2 minutes for Delay of Game
  128. P1 08:27
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Nick Cousins in offensive zone
  129. P1 08:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
  130. P1 07:17
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
  131. P1 07:08
    SHOT
    Matthew Knies shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
  132. P1 05:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
  133. P1 04:19
    SHOT
    Philippe Myers shot blocked by Warren Foegele
  134. P1 03:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
  135. P1 02:18
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
  136. P1 02:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  137. P1 01:58
    William Nylander credited with hit on Thomas Chabot in offensive zone
  138. P1 01:52
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
  139. P1 01:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Linus Ullmark
  140. P1 01:30
    Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Shane Pinto)
  141. P1 01:30
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  142. P1 01:19
    Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
  143. P1 01:14
    Stoppage - Icing
  144. P1 01:05
    Stoppage - Offside
  145. P1 00:13
    Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in defensive zone
  146. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Senators
14Shots on Goal43
44% Faceoff Win % 56%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
10Penalty Infraction Mins8
17Hits22
6 Shots Blocked 14
17Giveaways14
Maple LeafsTOR
SenatorsOTT
14Shots on Goal43
44% Faceoff Win % 56%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
10Penalty Infraction Mins8
17Hits22
6 Shots Blocked 14
17Giveaways14

Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Senators
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs 26¢, Senators 74¢

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 34%
  • Senators: 66%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 34%, while the Senators have a win probability of 66%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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