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Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL game on March 21, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Maple Leafs
2
5
Mar 21, 11PM Canadian Tire Centre
Senators
Mar 21, 11PM Canadian Tire Centre
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1 2
Senators
1 2 2 5
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
0%
100%
SenatorsOTT
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 1 2
Senators
1 2 2 5
P3 18:59 Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:16 Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P3 17:59 Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:35 Power play - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 16:44 Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 16:19 Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 16:03 Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 14:51 Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 14:40 Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
P3 14:19 Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:10 Ridly Greig shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 11:37 Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
P3 11:04 Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
P3 09:40 Goal scored by Michael Amadio assisted by Jordan Spence and Shane Pinto
P3 08:00 Warren Foegele shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 06:41 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 06:09 Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 06:01 Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
P3 05:49 Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:07 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:21
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
P3 19:15
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Nick Cousins in defensive zone
P3 19:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 19:00
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
P3 18:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:16
SHOT
Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund
P3 17:59
SHOT
Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:35
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:15
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Equipment
P3 16:44
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 16:19
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 16:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 15:55
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P3 15:41
Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 15:41
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson
P3 14:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P3 14:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
P3 14:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11
Max Domi won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P3 13:10
SHOT
Ridly Greig shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 12:13
Lars Eller won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
P3 12:11
Nikolas Matinpalo credited with hit on Simon Benoit in neutral zone
P3 11:37
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Artem Zub
P3 11:20
John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P3 11:20
Stoppage - Offside
P3 11:04
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
P3 09:40
GOAL
Goal scored by Michael Amadio assisted by Jordan Spence and Shane Pinto
2-4
P3 09:34
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
P3 08:43
Takeaway by Nick Cousins in defensive zone
P3 08:00
SHOT
Warren Foegele shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 07:19
Giveaway by Michael Amadio in defensive zone
P3 06:54
John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P3 06:41
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 06:09
SHOT
Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Nicholas Robertson
P3 06:01
SHOT
Shot missed by Tyler Kleven
P3 05:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:41
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Player Equipment
P3 05:22
Lars Eller won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P3 05:07
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 04:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 03:24
John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P3 03:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P3 03:19
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P3 02:19
Giveaway by Bo Groulx in defensive zone
P3 01:48
SHOT
Shot missed by Dakota Joshua
P3 00:43
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
P3 00:43
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 00:00
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Ridly Greig in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:37
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 19:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Senators saved by Joseph Woll
P2 19:01
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 19:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bo Groulx saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 18:28
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P2 18:14
GOAL
Goal scored by John Tavares assisted by Easton Cowan and Brandon Carlo
1-3
P2 17:53
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 17:39
SHOT
Shot missed by Michael Amadio
P2 17:12
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 17:00
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P2 15:37
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
P2 15:37
Stoppage - Icing
P2 15:04
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P2 15:04
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P2 15:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Joseph Woll
P2 13:57
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P2 13:27
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
P2 13:00
Stoppage - Icing
P2 11:38
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P2 10:49
Shorthanded - Bo Groulx won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P2 10:46
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
P2 09:51
Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P2 09:51
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 09:43
Power play - Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P2 09:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
P2 09:09
GOAL
Goal scored by Claude Giroux
0-2
P2 08:51
SHOT
Bo Groulx shot blocked by Dennis Gilbert
P2 08:26
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P2 08:24
SHOT
Shot missed by Ridly Greig
P2 07:32
SHOT
Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Tyler Kleven
P2 06:34
Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 06:34
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 06:07
Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 06:07
Stoppage - TV timeout
P2 04:50
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
P2 04:43
SHOT
Shane Pinto shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P2 04:31
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P2 03:41
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Joseph Woll
P2 02:51
SHOT
Dennis Gilbert shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P2 02:36
SHOT
Shot missed by John Tavares
P2 01:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Joseph Woll
P2 01:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
P2 01:09
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Cousins
P2 00:52
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone
P2 00:50
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
P2 00:47
Stoppage - Icing
P2 00:00
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:19
Drake Batherson credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
P1 18:56
Max Domi won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
P1 18:56
Stoppage - Icing
P1 17:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Jordan Spence
P1 17:45
John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P1 17:45
Stoppage - Offside
P1 17:09
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jordan Spence saved by Joseph Woll
P1 16:38
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P1 16:36
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Joseph Woll
P1 16:17
Lars Eller won faceoff against Dakota Joshua in neutral zone
P1 15:00
Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Jordan Spence in neutral zone
P1 14:58
John Tavares won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P1 14:43
SHOT
Power play - Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 14:18
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 14:12
Stoppage - TV timeout
P1 14:12
Penalty to Matias Maccelli 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Lars Eller)
P1 13:45
SHOT
William Nylander shot blocked by Shane Pinto
P1 12:27
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
P1 12:06
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P1 11:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 11:09
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P1 11:05
SHOT
Jordan Spence shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P1 11:02
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Senators in neutral zone
P1 11:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Joseph Woll
P1 09:01
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P1 09:00
Max Domi won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P1 08:37
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 08:27
Stoppage - TV timeout
P1 08:27
Penalty to Dennis Gilbert 2 minutes for Delay of Game
P1 08:27
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Nick Cousins in offensive zone
P1 08:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 07:17
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P1 07:08
SHOT
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
P1 05:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
P1 04:19
SHOT
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Warren Foegele
P1 03:23
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 02:18
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P1 02:18
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:58
William Nylander credited with hit on Thomas Chabot in offensive zone
P1 01:52
John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
P1 01:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 01:30
Penalty to Max Domi 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Shane Pinto)
P1 01:30
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 01:19
Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
P1 01:14
Stoppage - Icing
P1 01:05
Stoppage - Offside
P1 00:13
Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Tyler Kleven in defensive zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Senators
14Shots on Goal43
44% Faceoff Win % 56%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
10Penalty Infraction Mins8
17Hits22
6Shots Blocked14
17Giveaways14
Maple LeafsTOR
SenatorsOTT
14Shots on Goal43
44% Faceoff Win % 56%
3/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
10Penalty Infraction Mins8
17Hits22
6Shots Blocked14
17Giveaways14

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Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Senators
  • Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +275, Senators -310

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 34%
  • Senators: 66%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 34%, while the Senators have a win probability of 66%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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