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Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction: Close Contest Projected After New Data Released for Thursday's NHL Matchup [5/1/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Our expert prediction for Thursday's Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators matchup.
The Ottawa Senators will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 2025 NHL Playoffs at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects an equal chance for both the Senators and Maple Leafs to win today's game.
"Using the latest data, our experts simulated Thursday's Toronto-Ottawa game 10,000 times," said Mac Douglass from Dimers.
"Based on the latest updates and extensive data, we predict a 50-50 chance for both the Senators and Maple Leafs, making it a highly competitive matchup."
For further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions page.
Get 20% off Dimers Pro With Code 20HOCKEY Get Dimers Pro Senators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Puck Line?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL Playoffs game between the Maple Leafs and Senators 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently can't split the two teams, giving both the Maple Leafs and Senators a 50% chance of winning the game.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 70% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 52% chance of going over.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Maple Leafs | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-250) | -1.5 (+225) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -110 |
| Total | o5.5 (+100) | u5.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Maple Leafs vs. Senators Picks and Best Bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Maple Leafs vs. Senators matchup is on the puck line.
Our expert predictions, matched against the latest odds, reveal the best NHL picks and NHL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Unlock Every Maple Leafs-Senators Pick Get Dimers Pro Maple Leafs vs. Senators Player Props
Who will score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators?
According to our model, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Senators.
Our projections give Matthews a 7.1% chance of scoring the first goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the Maple Leafs star is a 38.6% chance of registering an anytime goal.
First Goal Scorer Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 7.1% |
| William Nylander | 5.7% |
| John Tavares | 5.3% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 6.1% |
| Drake Batherson | 5.5% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.9% |
Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 38.6% |
| William Nylander | 31.3% |
| John Tavares | 29.6% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 29.5% |
| Drake Batherson | 28.6% |
| Tim Stutzle | 26.2% |
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Game-Day Updates and Essential Details
Thursday's action between the Senators and Maple Leafs in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
The Stanley Cup Playoffs (aka NHL Playoffs) is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.
A total of 16 teams, including the Maple Leafs and Senators, made the NHL Playoffs 2025, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.
Each round of the NHL Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins advancing to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Dimers.com's full preview of Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Senators matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Toronto vs. Ottawa picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
Conclusion
We predict a close game between the Maple Leafs and Senators on Thursday, with each team having a 50% chance of winning.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
More on NHL
Stay up-to-date with the latest NHL betting news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the most accurate probabilities for the Stanley Cup title.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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