Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Senators NHL game on May 1, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.

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FINAL

NHL

FINAL

NHL

Maple Leafs

May 1, 11PM Canadian Tire Centre

Senators

May 1, 11PM Canadian Tire Centre

In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play

Game PredictionsPre-Game

Best Bets

TEAM	1	2	3	T
Maple Leafs	1	1	2	4
Senators	0	1	1	2

Live Probabilities

Moneyline

Over / Under

Maple LeafsTOR

Win %

100%

SenatorsOTT

Win Probability

TEAM	1	2	3	T
Maple Leafs	1	1	2	4
Senators	0	1	1	2

Play by Play

GOALS

ALL

P3 20:00

End of 3rd Period.

P3 20:00

End of 3rd Period.

P3 19:54

SHOT

Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 19:53

SHOT

Shot on goal by Michael Amadio saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 19:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 19:48

SHOT

Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 19:41

Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P3 19:41

GOAL

Goal scored by William Nylander (Empty Net)

4-2

P3 19:33

SHOT

Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Scott Laughton

P3 19:21

Claude Giroux won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone

P3 19:21

SHOT

Shot missed by William Nylander

P3 19:21

Stoppage - Icing

P3 18:40

SHOT

Jake Sanderson shot blocked by teammate

P3 18:06

Auston Matthews credited with hit on Claude Giroux in neutral zone

P3 17:54

SHOT

Shot missed by Claude Giroux

P3 17:45

Drake Batherson credited with hit on Jake McCabe in offensive zone

P3 17:28

SHOT

Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 16:29

Nick Jensen credited with hit on Bobby McMann in neutral zone

P3 16:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Linus Ullmark

P3 15:58

Shane Pinto won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone

P3 15:58

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P3 15:56

SHOT

Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark

P3 15:41

Giveaway by Jake McCabe in neutral zone

P3 15:08

SHOT

Shot missed by Scott Laughton

P3 15:08

SHOT

Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Linus Ullmark

P3 14:58

Giveaway by Artem Zub in defensive zone

P3 14:47

Oliver Ekman-Larsson credited with hit on Tim Stutzle in defensive zone

P3 14:32

Giveaway by Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P3 14:21

Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P3 14:21

GOAL

Goal scored by Max Pacioretty assisted by Max Domi

3-2

P3 14:11

SHOT

Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Linus Ullmark

P3 13:55

David Perron won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone

P3 13:55

Stoppage - Offside

P3 13:12

Giveaway by Brandon Carlo in neutral zone

P3 13:03

SHOT

Shot missed by William Nylander

P3 13:01

John Tavares won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone

P3 13:01

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P3 12:59

SHOT

Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Linus Ullmark

P3 12:45

Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in defensive zone

P3 12:40

John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone

P3 12:40

GOAL

Goal scored by David Perron assisted by Thomas Chabot

2-2

P3 12:22

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 10:45

Shorthanded - Takeaway by Mitch Marner in defensive zone

P3 10:33

Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone

P3 10:33

Stoppage - TV timeout

P3 10:33

Penalty to Morgan Rielly 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Fabian Zetterlund)

P3 10:23

Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone

P3 10:23

Stoppage - Icing

P3 10:15

SHOT

Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg

P3 09:49

SHOT

Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 09:43

Giveaway by Morgan Rielly in neutral zone

P3 09:10

Giveaway by Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone

P3 08:22

Nick Jensen credited with hit on Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P3 08:08

SHOT

Shot missed by Simon Benoit

P3 07:40

SHOT

Shot missed by Brandon Carlo

P3 07:29

SHOT

Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Adam Gaudette

P3 06:29

SHOT

Shot missed by Scott Laughton

P3 05:56

SHOT

Shot missed by Simon Benoit

P3 05:23

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P3 05:23

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P3 05:19

SHOT

Shot missed by Jake McCabe

P3 05:15

SHOT

Shot missed by Max Domi

P3 05:14

Giveaway by Linus Ullmark in defensive zone

P3 05:02

Adam Gaudette won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone

P3 05:02

Stoppage - Offside

P3 04:40

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 02:31

Nick Cousins credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in offensive zone

P3 02:19

SHOT

Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Nick Cousins

P3 01:45

SHOT

David Perron shot blocked by Jake McCabe

P3 01:33

Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone

P3 01:26

Drake Batherson credited with hit on Max Pacioretty in offensive zone

P3 01:22

John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone

P3 01:22

Stoppage - Puck in Crowd

P3 01:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tyler Kleven saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 00:52

Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone

P3 00:52

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P3 00:37

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Anthony Stolarz

P3 00:18

SHOT

Shot missed by Mitch Marner

P3 00:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone

P2 20:00

End of 2nd Period.

P2 19:53

Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P2 19:53

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 19:51

SHOT

Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 19:48

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone

P2 19:48

Stoppage - Icing

P2 19:32

SHOT

Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo

P2 19:29

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone

P2 19:29

Stoppage - Icing

P2 19:22

SHOT

Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo

P2 18:57

SHOT

Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk

P2 18:48

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 18:34

SHOT

Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 18:16

Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone

P2 18:16

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 18:14

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 17:39

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 17:35

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P2 17:35

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P2 17:33

SHOT

Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 17:23

Giveaway by Dylan Cozens in defensive zone

P2 17:19

SHOT

Shot missed by Simon Benoit

P2 15:40

Matthew Knies credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in offensive zone

P2 15:28

Simon Benoit credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone

P2 15:23

SHOT

Shot missed by Jake Sanderson

P2 15:09

Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P2 15:09

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P2 15:06

SHOT

Shot missed by John Tavares

P2 15:05

SHOT

Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 14:20

Takeaway by Drake Batherson in offensive zone

P2 14:15

SHOT

Shot on goal by Drake Batherson saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 13:27

SHOT

Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk

P2 12:57

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone

P2 12:57

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 12:55

SHOT

Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 12:25

Adam Gaudette won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone

P2 12:25

Stoppage - High Stick

P2 12:16

SHOT

Shane Pinto shot blocked by teammate

P2 11:39

Michael Amadio credited with hit on John Tavares in offensive zone

P2 11:28

William Nylander won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P2 11:28

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout

P2 11:26

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 11:11

SHOT

Mitch Marner shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo

P2 11:04

SHOT

Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo

P2 09:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 09:48

SHOT

Shot missed by Drake Batherson

P2 09:38

Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone

P2 09:38

Stoppage - Icing

P2 08:46

Tim Stutzle credited with hit on Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone

P2 08:22

Takeaway by Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P2 08:21

Auston Matthews credited with hit on Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P2 08:18

Takeaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone

P2 08:13

SHOT

Shot missed by Brandon Carlo

P2 08:12

SHOT

Shot missed by Mitch Marner

P2 07:36

Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone

P2 07:36

Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout

P2 07:28

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone

P2 07:28

GOAL

Goal scored by Brady Tkachuk assisted by Thomas Chabot and Claude Giroux

2-1

P2 07:12

Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone

P2 07:12

Stoppage - Icing

P2 06:48

Drake Batherson credited with hit on Steven Lorentz in offensive zone

P2 06:01

Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone

P2 06:01

Stoppage - Icing

P2 05:06

SHOT

Shot on goal by Shane Pinto saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 04:48

Giveaway by Matthew Knies in defensive zone

P2 04:20

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone

P2 04:20

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 04:18

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 04:11

Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone

P2 04:05

SHOT

Shot on goal by Claude Giroux saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 04:02

SHOT

Shot missed by Tim Stutzle

P2 03:36

SHOT

Thomas Chabot shot blocked by John Tavares

P2 02:38

Fabian Zetterlund credited with hit on Chris Tanev in offensive zone

P2 02:24

Michael Amadio credited with hit on Matthew Knies in offensive zone

P2 02:20

SHOT

Shane Pinto shot blocked by Jake McCabe

P2 02:01

Michael Amadio credited with hit on Brandon Carlo in offensive zone

P2 01:56

Mitch Marner credited with hit on Michael Amadio in defensive zone

P2 01:43

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in defensive zone

P2 01:43

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P2 01:41

SHOT

Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Scott Laughton

P2 01:18

Scott Laughton won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone

P2 01:18

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P2 01:16

SHOT

Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Anthony Stolarz

P2 00:58

SHOT

Shot on goal by Max Pacioretty saved by Linus Ullmark

P2 00:43

John Tavares won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone

P2 00:43

GOAL

Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Max Pacioretty

2-0

P2 00:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone

P1 20:00

End of 1st Period.

P1 18:50

Scott Laughton won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in neutral zone

P1 18:50

GOAL

Power play - Goal scored by Auston Matthews assisted by Mitch Marner and William Nylander

1-0

P1 18:36

SHOT

Power play - William Nylander shot blocked by Jake Sanderson

P1 18:01

Shorthanded - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone

P1 18:01

Stoppage - TV timeout

P1 18:01

Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Brandon Carlo)

P1 17:42

Giveaway by John Tavares in defensive zone

P1 16:17

SHOT

Shot missed by Fabian Zetterlund

P1 16:00

SHOT

Tyler Kleven shot blocked by Simon Benoit

P1 15:35

Giveaway by Anthony Stolarz in defensive zone

P1 14:16

Giveaway by Max Pacioretty in neutral zone

P1 14:04

SHOT

William Nylander shot blocked by Claude Giroux

P1 14:00

John Tavares won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone

P1 14:00

Stoppage - Puck in Crowd

P1 13:32

Max Domi won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone

P1 13:32

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 13:29

SHOT

Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 12:45

Shane Pinto won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone

P1 12:45

Stoppage - Icing

P1 12:30

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P1 12:30

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 12:29

SHOT

Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 12:16

Nick Cousins won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone

P1 12:16

Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)

P1 12:14

SHOT

Shot on goal by Nikolas Matinpalo saved by Anthony Stolarz

P1 11:54

SHOT

Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Chris Tanev

P1 11:24

Alex Nylander won faceoff against Claude Giroux in offensive zone

P1 11:24

Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout

P1 11:22

SHOT

Shot missed by Simon Benoit

P1 11:15

SHOT

Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 10:42

SHOT

Shot missed by Max Domi

P1 10:42

SHOT

Shot on goal by Max Pacioretty saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 10:41

SHOT

Max Domi shot blocked by teammate

P1 10:41

SHOT

Shot on goal by Max Pacioretty saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 10:38

SHOT

Shot missed by Jake McCabe

P1 10:13

Giveaway by Michael Amadio in neutral zone

P1 10:12

SHOT

Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 09:47

SHOT

Power play - Shot on goal by Fabian Zetterlund saved by Anthony Stolarz

P1 09:26

SHOT

Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 08:08

SHOT

Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 08:02

SHOT

Power play - Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Auston Matthews

P1 07:48

Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone

P1 07:48

Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Claude Giroux)

P1 07:47

SHOT

Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Max Pacioretty

P1 07:20

SHOT

Brady Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake McCabe

P1 06:55

SHOT

Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Anthony Stolarz

P1 06:39

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P1 06:39

Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout

P1 06:37

SHOT

Max Pacioretty shot blocked by Artem Zub

P1 06:17

SHOT

Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Anthony Stolarz

P1 05:47

SHOT

Shane Pinto shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

P1 05:36

Giveaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in neutral zone

P1 05:29

SHOT

Auston Matthews shot blocked by Tyler Kleven

P1 04:52

SHOT

Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 04:13

Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in defensive zone

P1 03:33

SHOT

Thomas Chabot shot blocked by Simon Benoit

P1 02:37

Takeaway by Michael Amadio in offensive zone

P1 02:10

SHOT

Shot on goal by Mitch Marner saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 02:08

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone

P1 02:08

Stoppage - Puck in Netting

P1 02:05

SHOT

Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Linus Ullmark

P1 00:28

Auston Matthews credited with hit on Artem Zub in offensive zone

P1 00:06

Matthew Knies credited with hit on Artem Zub in offensive zone

P1 00:00

Auston Matthews won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone

P1 00:00

Game Setup.

Stats

Maple Leafs		STATS		Senators

23	Shots on Goal	23
60%	Faceoff Win %	40%
1/1	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	2/0
4	Penalty Infraction Mins	2
43	Hits	56
16	Shots Blocked	11
23	Giveaways	10

Maple LeafsTOR			SenatorsOTT

23	Shots on Goal	23
60%	Faceoff Win %	40%
1/1	PP Opportunities/PP Goals	2/0
4	Penalty Infraction Mins	2
43	Hits	56
16	Shots Blocked	11
23	Giveaways	10

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Maple Leafs vs. Senators: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Senators
Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Current Betting Odds

Spread: Senators favored at -1.5
Total (Over/Under): 5.5
Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs -105, Senators -110

Dimers' Win Probabilities

Maple Leafs: 50%
Senators: 50%

Dimers.com's predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 50%, while the Senators have a win probability of 50%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Senators are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Senators predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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