Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prediction: Rangers favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/5/2026]

The NY Rangers will square off with the Toronto Maple Leafs, in what is expected to be a close NHL game, at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Maple Leafs.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Rangers matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Rangers 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Rangers a 53% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Rangers
Puck Line	+1.5 (-220)	-1.5 (+185)
Moneyline	+112	-130
Total	o6 (-110)	u6 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-220
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+112
Total	Over 6	-110

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Rangers?

According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Rangers.

Our projections give Nylander a 42.2% chance of scoring a goal at Madison Square Garden, while the star is a 9.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
William Nylander	42.2%
Auston Matthews	41.8%
John Tavares	32.9%
Matthew Knies	27.2%
Matias Maccelli	18.3%

NY Rangers

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Mika Zibanejad	39.9%
Alexis Lafreniere	34.2%
Will Cuylle	32.4%
Gabe Perreault	25.2%
Adam Fox	21.0%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
William Nylander	9.0%
Auston Matthews	8.5%
John Tavares	6.5%
Matthew Knies	5.1%
Matias Maccelli	3.4%

NY Rangers

Player	First Goal Probability
Mika Zibanejad	8.5%
Alexis Lafreniere	7.4%
Will Cuylle	6.3%
Gabe Perreault	4.8%
Adam Fox	3.8%

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Rangers and Maple Leafs at Madison Square Garden is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. NY Rangers
• Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Madison Square Garden

Conclusion

We predict the Rangers, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Rangers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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