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Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Rangers NHL game on March 5, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
2
6
Mar 6, 12AM Madison Square Garden
Mar 6, 12AM Madison Square Garden
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Rangers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Rangers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
P3 17:14 Shot on goal by Jaroslav Chmelar saved by Joseph Woll
P3 17:08 Goal scored by Will Cuylle (Empty Net)
P3 17:01 Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
P3 17:00 Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Igor Shesterkin
P3 15:30 Shot missed by Max Domi
P3 15:26 Shot on goal by Dakota Joshua saved by Igor Shesterkin
P3 15:02 Matthew Knies shot blocked by Adam Fox
P3 14:33 Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Igor Shesterkin
P3 13:24 Conor Sheary shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
P3 13:21 Shot on goal by Matthew Robertson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 12:20 Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Igor Shesterkin
P3 10:25 Goal scored by Jaroslav Chmelar
P3 09:00 Shot missed by Will Cuylle
P3 06:09 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Igor Shesterkin
P3 05:48 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
P3 05:17 Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 04:36 Braden Schneider shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 03:57 Taylor Raddysh shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 03:51 Shot on goal by Will Cuylle saved by Joseph Woll
P3 03:23 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Igor Shesterkin
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Juuso Parssinen in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Stoppage - Icing
Max Domi won faceoff against Conor Sheary in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jaroslav Chmelar saved by Joseph Woll
GOAL
Goal scored by Will Cuylle (Empty Net)
2-6
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Domi
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dakota Joshua saved by Igor Shesterkin
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Adam Fox
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Igor Shesterkin
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in offensive zone
SHOT
Conor Sheary shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Robertson saved by Joseph Woll
Jonny Brodzinski won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Igor Shesterkin
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Noah Laba in offensive zone
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Jaroslav Chmelar
2-4
SHOT
Shot missed by Will Cuylle
Braden Schneider credited with hit on Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Will Borgen credited with hit on Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Noah Laba won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Noah Laba won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
SHOT
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Troy Stecher
Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Adam Fox in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Tye Kartye in defensive zone
SHOT
Braden Schneider shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Max Domi won faceoff against Noah Laba in defensive zone
Nicholas Robertson won faceoff against Noah Laba in defensive zone
SHOT
Taylor Raddysh shot blocked by Philippe Myers
SHOT
Shot on goal by Will Cuylle saved by Joseph Woll
Will Cuylle won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Igor Shesterkin
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Alexis Lafreniere in offensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Igor Shesterkin
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot missed by Jaroslav Chmelar
Max Domi won faceoff against Noah Laba in defensive zone
SHOT
Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
SHOT
Shot on goal by Braden Schneider saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Igor Shesterkin
Will Cuylle won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jonny Brodzinski in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against Auston Matthews in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
End of 2nd Period.
Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake McCabe saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot missed by Calle Jarnkrok
SHOT
Matthew Robertson shot blocked by Jacob Quillan
SHOT
Alexis Lafreniere shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot missed by Jonny Brodzinski
Easton Cowan credited with hit on Adam Fox in offensive zone
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Will Cuylle saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in defensive zone
SHOT
Tye Kartye shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
Noah Laba won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Igor Shesterkin
Dakota Joshua credited with hit on Adam Edstrom in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Will Cuylle
SHOT
Will Cuylle shot blocked by teammate
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
Power play - Conor Sheary won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in neutral zone
Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Will Cuylle in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in defensive zone
Power play - Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vincent Iorio saved by Joseph Woll
John Tavares won faceoff against Noah Laba in neutral zone
Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vladislav Gavrikov saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Shot missed by Adam Edstrom
SHOT
Shot on goal by Vincent Iorio saved by Joseph Woll
Takeaway by Mika Zibanejad in neutral zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Noah Laba won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in neutral zone
Mika Zibanejad won faceoff against William Nylander in defensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Noah Laba in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Noah Laba won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Will Borgen
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in offensive zone
Penalty to Juuso Parssinen 2 minutes for Misconduct
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Rangers in neutral zone
SHOT
Alexis Lafreniere shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Igor Shesterkin
SHOT
Shot on goal by Steven Lorentz saved by Igor Shesterkin
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Will Cuylle in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Easton Cowan
SHOT
Shot on goal by Braden Schneider saved by Joseph Woll
SHOT
Tye Kartye shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Vladislav Gavrikov shot blocked by teammate
Juuso Parssinen won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Alexis Lafreniere
SHOT
Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
SHOT
Tye Kartye shot blocked by Philippe Myers
SHOT
Shot on goal by Will Cuylle saved by Joseph Woll
Steven Lorentz credited with hit on Braden Schneider in offensive zone
Giveaway by Braden Schneider in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Adam Fox shot blocked by Jake McCabe
Power play - Will Cuylle won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
Penalty to Matias Maccelli 2 minutes for Slashing (Drawn by Will Borgen)
Takeaway by Will Borgen in defensive zone
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Mika Zibanejad in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 24 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 1/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 2/1 | |||
| 4 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 27 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 24 | Shots Blocked | 9 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 13 |
| |
|---|
| 31 | Shots on Goal | 24 | |||
| 54% | Faceoff Win % | 46% | |||
| 1/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 2/1 | |||
| 4 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 2 | |||
| 27 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 24 | Shots Blocked | 9 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 13 |
Game Prediction Article
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Maple Leafs vs. Rangers: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Rangers
- Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Rangers favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6
- Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +112, Rangers -130
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Maple Leafs: 48%
- Rangers: 52%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 48%, while the Rangers have a win probability of 52%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Rangers are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Madison Square Garden on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Maple Leafs vs. Rangers predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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