Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens prediction: Why Montreal is favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [3/10/2026]

The Montreal Canadiens will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at Bell Centre on Tuesday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Canadiens as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Habs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Maple Leafs and Canadiens 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Canadiens a 59% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Canadiens
Puck Line	+1.5 (-170)	-1.5 (+145)
Moneyline	+142	-166
Total	o6.5 (-130)	u6.5 (+112)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-170
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+142
Total	Under 6.5	+112

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens?

According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens.

Our projections give Caufield a 43.0% chance of scoring a goal at Bell Centre, while the star is an 8.7% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	42.4%
William Nylander	41.1%
John Tavares	35.2%
Matthew Knies	28.4%
Matias Maccelli	22.3%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	43.0%
Nick Suzuki	30.8%
Alex Newhook	27.4%
Ivan Demidov	27.2%
Juraj Slafkovsky	24.1%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	8.2%
William Nylander	8.0%
John Tavares	6.1%
Matthew Knies	5.0%
Matias Maccelli	3.8%

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	8.7%
Nick Suzuki	5.9%
Ivan Demidov	4.8%
Alex Newhook	4.6%
Juraj Slafkovsky	4.4%

Maple Leafs vs. Habs game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's matchup between the Canadiens and Maple Leafs at Bell Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
• Date: Tuesday, March 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Bell Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Canadiens, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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