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Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens NHL game on March 10, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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Maple Leafs
1
3
Mar 10, 11PM Bell Centre
Canadiens
Mar 10, 11PM Bell Centre
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
Canadiens
2 0 1 3
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
0%
100%
CanadiensMTL
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
Canadiens
2 0 1 3
P3 19:22 John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 18:38 Shot missed by Josh Anderson
P3 18:20 Auston Matthews shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:55 Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
P3 16:54 Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 16:39 Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:21 Power play - Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:06 Power play - Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 13:08 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 11:52 Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 11:16 Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:27 Matthew Knies shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 09:17 Bo Groulx shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 07:50 Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 07:36 Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 06:13 Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:51 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 02:31 Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 01:40 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 19:37 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jakub Dobes
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:32
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
P3 19:22
SHOT
John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 18:43
Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P3 18:43
Stoppage - Visitor Timeout
P3 18:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Josh Anderson
P3 18:20
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:55
SHOT
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
P3 16:54
SHOT
Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 16:41
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P3 16:41
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 16:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:21
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 15:06
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 14:00
Shorthanded - Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in defensive zone
P3 13:49
Power play - Takeaway by Lane Hutson in offensive zone
P3 13:26
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in defensive zone
P3 13:08
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 13:06
Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
P3 12:48
Stoppage - Hand Pass
P3 12:07
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 11:52
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 11:21
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P3 11:17
Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P3 11:17
Penalty to Matthew Knies 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Brendan Gallagher)
P3 11:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:27
SHOT
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 09:38
Takeaway by Alexandre Carrier in defensive zone
P3 09:17
SHOT
Bo Groulx shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 08:24
Stoppage - Offside
P3 07:58
John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
P3 07:58
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 07:50
SHOT
Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 07:36
SHOT
Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 07:11
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P3 06:37
John Tavares won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
P3 06:13
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:58
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P3 05:20
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P3 05:20
Stoppage - Icing
P3 04:56
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
P3 04:48
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
P3 04:37
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
P3 04:22
Alex Newhook won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P3 04:22
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 03:35
Takeaway by Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P3 03:21
Giveaway by Lane Hutson in offensive zone
P3 02:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 02:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:26
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 02:07
John Tavares won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
P3 02:07
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
P3 01:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 01:29
Giveaway by Zachary Bolduc in neutral zone
P3 00:16
Takeaway by Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
P3 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 19:29
SHOT
Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
P2 19:19
SHOT
Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by teammate
P2 17:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 17:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Joseph Woll
P2 16:51
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P2 15:54
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P2 15:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Newhook
P2 15:04
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
P2 14:54
SHOT
Josh Anderson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P2 14:31
GOAL
Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Easton Cowan
1-2
P2 14:23
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
P2 14:23
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:19
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Cole Caufield
P2 14:10
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 14:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P2 14:00
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 13:44
Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
P2 13:43
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 12:32
Shorthanded - Jake Evans credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
P2 11:55
Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 11:38
Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 11:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 10:49
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by teammate
P2 10:46
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 10:24
John Tavares won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
P2 10:22
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Joseph Woll
P2 09:22
SHOT
Troy Stecher shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
P2 09:08
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P2 08:17
Jake Evans won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P2 08:15
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Joseph Woll
P2 08:12
SHOT
Maple Leafs shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P2 07:21
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P2 07:12
SHOT
Simon Benoit shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P2 06:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 05:44
Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
P2 05:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
P2 04:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 04:12
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
P2 03:44
Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
P2 02:57
SHOT
Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P2 02:35
Penalty to Arber Xhekaj 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Jacob Quillan)
P2 02:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Evans
P2 01:14
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Joseph Woll
P2 00:00
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:35
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
P1 19:35
Penalty to Brendan Gallagher 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Jake McCabe)
P1 19:35
Penalty to Jake McCabe 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Brendan Gallagher)
P1 19:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 19:08
Stoppage - Offside
P1 18:41
Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
P1 18:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Joseph Woll
P1 17:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 17:05
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P1 16:48
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kirby Dach saved by Joseph Woll
P1 16:03
Jake Evans won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
P1 16:03
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
P1 14:55
SHOT
John Tavares shot blocked by teammate
P1 14:41
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P1 13:50
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P1 13:49
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
P1 13:44
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 13:41
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 13:41
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 13:36
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 13:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Joseph Woll
P1 13:25
SHOT
Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Easton Cowan
P1 13:02
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P1 13:00
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Joseph Woll
P1 12:40
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P1 11:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
P1 11:07
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
P1 10:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Caufield
P1 10:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake McCabe
P1 08:46
Morgan Rielly credited with hit on Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
P1 08:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Joseph Woll
P1 08:28
SHOT
Arber Xhekaj shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P1 08:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Arber Xhekaj saved by Joseph Woll
P1 07:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Jakub Dobes
P1 07:21
Giveaway by Kaiden Guhle in offensive zone
P1 07:02
SHOT
Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
P1 06:50
SHOT
Max Domi shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P1 06:19
SHOT
Shot missed by Mike Matheson
P1 06:09
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
P1 06:09
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 05:49
Stoppage - Icing
P1 04:46
GOAL
Goal scored by Oliver Kapanen assisted by Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov
0-1
P1 03:37
SHOT
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P1 03:31
Brandon Carlo credited with hit on Juraj Slafkovský in defensive zone
P1 02:59
SHOT
Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Phillip Danault
P1 02:32
John Tavares won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
P1 02:30
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Joseph Woll
P1 02:26
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 02:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
P1 01:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Bo Groulx saved by Jakub Dobes
P1 01:21
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P1 00:31
Max Domi credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
P1 00:07
Mike Matheson credited with hit on Max Domi in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Canadiens
18Shots on Goal33
51% Faceoff Win % 49%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
23Hits20
15Shots Blocked18
12Giveaways11
Maple LeafsTOR
CanadiensMTL
18Shots on Goal33
51% Faceoff Win % 49%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
23Hits20
15Shots Blocked18
12Giveaways11

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Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens
  • Date: Tuesday, March 10, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Bell Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Canadiens favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +145, Canadiens -164

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 41%
  • Canadiens: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 41%, while the Canadiens have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Canadiens are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Bell Centre on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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