Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens NHL game on March 10, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
1
3
Bell Centre
Canadiens
Bell Centre
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
Canadiens
2 0 1 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Canadiens
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 1 0 1
Canadiens
2 0 1 3
P3 19:22 John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
P3 18:38 Shot missed by Josh Anderson
P3 18:20 Auston Matthews shot blocked by teammate
P3 17:55 Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
P3 16:54 Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
P3 16:39 Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:21 Power play - Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 15:06 Power play - Shot missed by Kirby Dach
P3 13:08 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 11:52 Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
P3 11:16 Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 10:27 Matthew Knies shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 09:17 Bo Groulx shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
P3 07:50 Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
P3 07:36 Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P3 06:13 Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:51 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 02:31 Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Joseph Woll
P3 01:40 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Jakub Dobes
P2 19:37 Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jakub Dobes
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:32
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:22
    SHOT
    John Tavares shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  4. P3 18:43
    Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  5. P3 18:43
    Stoppage - Visitor Timeout
  6. P3 18:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Josh Anderson
  7. P3 18:20
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by teammate
  8. P3 17:55
    SHOT
    Easton Cowan shot blocked by Jake Evans
  9. P3 16:54
    SHOT
    Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
  10. P3 16:41
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  11. P3 16:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  12. P3 16:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
  13. P3 15:21
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
  14. P3 15:19
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  15. P3 15:06
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Kirby Dach
  16. P3 14:00
    Shorthanded - Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in defensive zone
  17. P3 13:49
    Power play - Takeaway by Lane Hutson in offensive zone
  18. P3 13:26
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in defensive zone
  19. P3 13:08
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
  20. P3 13:06
    Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
  21. P3 12:48
    Stoppage - Hand Pass
  22. P3 12:07
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  23. P3 11:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
  24. P3 11:21
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  25. P3 11:17
    Shorthanded - Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  26. P3 11:17
    Penalty to Matthew Knies 2 minutes for High Sticking (Drawn by Brendan Gallagher)
  27. P3 11:16
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Anderson saved by Joseph Woll
  28. P3 10:27
    SHOT
    Matthew Knies shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
  29. P3 09:38
    Takeaway by Alexandre Carrier in defensive zone
  30. P3 09:17
    SHOT
    Bo Groulx shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  31. P3 08:24
    Stoppage - Offside
  32. P3 07:58
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Evans in defensive zone
  33. P3 07:58
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  34. P3 07:50
    SHOT
    Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Dakota Joshua
  35. P3 07:36
    SHOT
    Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  36. P3 07:11
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  37. P3 06:37
    John Tavares won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  38. P3 06:13
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zachary Bolduc saved by Joseph Woll
  39. P3 05:58
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  40. P3 05:20
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  41. P3 05:20
    Stoppage - Icing
  42. P3 04:56
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  43. P3 04:48
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
  44. P3 04:37
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  45. P3 04:22
    Alex Newhook won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  46. P3 04:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  47. P3 03:35
    Takeaway by Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  48. P3 03:21
    Giveaway by Lane Hutson in offensive zone
  49. P3 02:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  50. P3 02:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Mike Matheson saved by Joseph Woll
  51. P3 02:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  52. P3 02:07
    John Tavares won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  53. P3 02:07
    Stoppage - Puck Frozen
  54. P3 01:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Jakub Dobes
  55. P3 01:29
    Giveaway by Zachary Bolduc in neutral zone
  56. P3 00:16
    Takeaway by Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
  57. P3 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  58. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  59. P2 19:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Jakub Dobes
  60. P2 19:29
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
  61. P2 19:19
    SHOT
    Brendan Gallagher shot blocked by teammate
  62. P2 17:56
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Joseph Woll
  63. P2 17:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Joseph Woll
  64. P2 16:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  65. P2 15:54
    SHOT
    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  66. P2 15:36
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Newhook
  67. P2 15:04
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
  68. P2 14:54
    SHOT
    Josh Anderson shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  69. P2 14:31
    GOAL
    Goal scored by William Nylander assisted by Easton Cowan
    1-2
  70. P2 14:23
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  71. P2 14:23
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  72. P2 14:19
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Cole Caufield
  73. P2 14:10
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Carlo saved by Jakub Dobes
  74. P2 14:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  75. P2 14:00
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  76. P2 13:44
    Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
  77. P2 13:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Jakub Dobes
  78. P2 12:32
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
  79. P2 11:55
    Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  80. P2 11:38
    Jake Evans won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  81. P2 11:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Jakub Dobes
  82. P2 10:49
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by teammate
  83. P2 10:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  84. P2 10:24
    John Tavares won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
  85. P2 10:22
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Joseph Woll
  86. P2 09:22
    SHOT
    Troy Stecher shot blocked by Arber Xhekaj
  87. P2 09:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
  88. P2 08:17
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  89. P2 08:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Evans saved by Joseph Woll
  90. P2 08:12
    SHOT
    Maple Leafs shot blocked by Noah Dobson
  91. P2 07:21
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  92. P2 07:12
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  93. P2 06:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Jakub Dobes
  94. P2 05:44
    Oliver Kapanen won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in offensive zone
  95. P2 05:19
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
  96. P2 04:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Troy Stecher saved by Jakub Dobes
  97. P2 04:12
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  98. P2 03:44
    Power play - Max Domi won faceoff against Oliver Kapanen in neutral zone
  99. P2 02:57
    SHOT
    Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
  100. P2 02:35
    Penalty to Arber Xhekaj 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Jacob Quillan)
  101. P2 02:30
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake Evans
  102. P2 01:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ivan Demidov saved by Joseph Woll
  103. P2 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  104. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  105. P1 19:35
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
  106. P1 19:35
    Penalty to Brendan Gallagher 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Jake McCabe)
  107. P1 19:35
    Penalty to Jake McCabe 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Brendan Gallagher)
  108. P1 19:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Joseph Woll
  109. P1 19:08
    Stoppage - Offside
  110. P1 18:41
    Giveaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
  111. P1 18:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Cole Caufield saved by Joseph Woll
  112. P1 17:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Joseph Woll
  113. P1 17:05
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Mike Matheson
  114. P1 16:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kirby Dach saved by Joseph Woll
  115. P1 16:03
    Jake Evans won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in neutral zone
  116. P1 16:03
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  117. P1 14:55
    SHOT
    John Tavares shot blocked by teammate
  118. P1 14:41
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  119. P1 13:50
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  120. P1 13:49
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  121. P1 13:44
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  122. P1 13:41
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  123. P1 13:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  124. P1 13:36
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  125. P1 13:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Joseph Woll
  126. P1 13:25
    SHOT
    Alexandre Carrier shot blocked by Easton Cowan
  127. P1 13:02
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  128. P1 13:00
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Joseph Woll
  129. P1 12:40
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  130. P1 11:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Joseph Woll
  131. P1 11:07
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Canadiens in neutral zone
  132. P1 10:34
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Cole Caufield
  133. P1 10:00
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Jake McCabe
  134. P1 08:46
    Morgan Rielly credited with hit on Oliver Kapanen in defensive zone
  135. P1 08:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Kapanen saved by Joseph Woll
  136. P1 08:28
    SHOT
    Arber Xhekaj shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
  137. P1 08:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Arber Xhekaj saved by Joseph Woll
  138. P1 07:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Jakub Dobes
  139. P1 07:21
    Giveaway by Kaiden Guhle in offensive zone
  140. P1 07:02
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Kaiden Guhle
  141. P1 06:50
    SHOT
    Max Domi shot blocked by Noah Dobson
  142. P1 06:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Mike Matheson
  143. P1 06:09
    Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Auston Matthews in offensive zone
  144. P1 06:09
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  145. P1 05:49
    Stoppage - Icing
  146. P1 04:46
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Oliver Kapanen assisted by Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov
    0-1
  147. P1 03:37
    SHOT
    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  148. P1 03:31
    Brandon Carlo credited with hit on Juraj Slafkovský in defensive zone
  149. P1 02:59
    SHOT
    Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Phillip Danault
  150. P1 02:32
    John Tavares won faceoff against Phillip Danault in defensive zone
  151. P1 02:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Joseph Woll
  152. P1 02:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  153. P1 02:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
  154. P1 01:53
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Bo Groulx saved by Jakub Dobes
  155. P1 01:21
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  156. P1 00:31
    Max Domi credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
  157. P1 00:07
    Mike Matheson credited with hit on Max Domi in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Canadiens
18Shots on Goal33
51% Faceoff Win % 49%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
23Hits20
15 Shots Blocked 18
12Giveaways11
Maple LeafsTOR
CanadiensMTL
18Shots on Goal33
51% Faceoff Win % 49%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins11
23Hits20
15 Shots Blocked 18
12Giveaways11

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens
  • Date: Tuesday, March 10, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Bell Centre

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Canadiens favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +145, Canadiens -164

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 41%
  • Canadiens: 59%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 41%, while the Canadiens have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Canadiens are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Bell Centre on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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