Maple Leafs vs. Sabres prediction: Buffalo favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/14/2026]

The Buffalo Sabres will face the Toronto Maple Leafs in NHL action at KeyBank Center on Saturday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Sabres as the most likely winner of the Maple Leafs vs. Sabres game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Sabres 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Sabres a 64% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.

According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 51% chance of going over.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Maple Leafs	Sabres
Puck Line	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+108)
Moneyline	+198	-230
Total	o6.5 (-115)	u6.5 (+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs +1.5	-120
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	+198
Total	Under 6.5	+102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres player props

Who will score a goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sabres?

According to our model, William Nylander is most likely to score an anytime goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.

Our projections give Nylander a 44.8% chance of scoring a goal at KeyBank Center, while the star is a 9.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
William Nylander	44.8%
John Tavares	37.6%
Matthew Knies	32.9%
Matias Maccelli	24.1%
Benoit-Olivier Groulx	18.6%

Buffalo Sabres

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	43.6%
Alex Tuch	39.1%
Josh Norris	30.8%
Jason Zucker	27.1%
Rasmus Dahlin	24.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
William Nylander	9.0%
John Tavares	8.0%
Matthew Knies	6.0%
Matias Maccelli	4.2%
Nicholas Robertson	3.2%

Buffalo Sabres

Player	First Goal Probability
Tage Thompson	8.1%
Alex Tuch	7.1%
Josh Norris	5.1%
Rasmus Dahlin	4.4%
Jason Zucker	4.3%

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between the Sabres and Maple Leafs at KeyBank Center is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres
• Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: KeyBank Center

Conclusion

We predict the Sabres, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Maple Leafs vs. Sabres insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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