Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Sabres NHL game on March 14, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Maple Leafs
2
3
KeyBank Center
Sabres
KeyBank Center
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 0 2
Sabres
1 1 0 0 3
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Sabres
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 0 2
Sabres
1 1 0 0 3
OT1 04:54 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
OT1 02:16 Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
OT1 01:02 Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:40 Shot missed by Zach Benson
P3 18:02 Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
P3 17:46 Shot missed by Bo Groulx
P3 16:51 Matthew Knies shot blocked by Jason Zucker
P3 16:23 Jason Zucker shot blocked by Max Domi
P3 15:26 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 14:37 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P3 13:31 Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11 Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:38 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
P3 10:12 Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 07:58 Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 05:59 Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:24 Shot on goal by Luke Schenn saved by Joseph Woll
P3 04:59 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 03:38 Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 02:47 Jake McCabe shot blocked by Logan Stanley
Play by Play
  1. SO
    End of Shootout period.
  2. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Alex Tuch on Joseph Woll
  3. SO
    Shootout Goal scored by Jack Quinn on Joseph Woll
  4. SO
    Shootout attempt by William Nylander saved by Alex Lyon
  5. SO
    Shootout attempt missed by Tage Thompson
  6. OT1 04:54
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  7. OT1 02:16
    SHOT
    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  8. OT1 01:11
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  9. OT1 01:11
    Stoppage - Net Dislodged by Goaltender
  10. OT1 01:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
  11. OT1 00:00
    Max Domi won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  12. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  13. P3 19:11
    Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Bo Groulx in defensive zone
  14. P3 19:11
    Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for Misconduct
  15. P3 18:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Benson
  16. P3 18:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
  17. P3 17:46
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bo Groulx
  18. P3 16:51
    SHOT
    Matthew Knies shot blocked by Jason Zucker
  19. P3 16:23
    SHOT
    Jason Zucker shot blocked by Max Domi
  20. P3 15:26
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  21. P3 15:22
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  22. P3 14:37
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Alex Tuch
  23. P3 13:31
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Joseph Woll
  24. P3 13:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Joseph Woll
  25. P3 11:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
  26. P3 10:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
  27. P3 09:16
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  28. P3 09:16
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  29. P3 09:02
    Stoppage - Icing
  30. P3 07:58
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
  31. P3 06:31
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
  32. P3 06:31
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  33. P3 06:31
    Penalty to Matthew Knies 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Josh Doan)
  34. P3 05:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
  35. P3 05:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Luke Schenn saved by Joseph Woll
  36. P3 05:00
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
  37. P3 04:59
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matthew Knies
  38. P3 03:57
    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
  39. P3 03:40
    John Tavares won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  40. P3 03:38
    SHOT
    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  41. P3 02:47
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Logan Stanley
  42. P3 02:29
    SHOT
    Alex Tuch shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  43. P3 02:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Joseph Woll
  44. P3 02:04
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
  45. P3 02:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Joseph Woll
  46. P3 00:22
    John Tavares won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  47. P3 00:12
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  48. P3 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  49. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  50. P2 19:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zach Benson
  51. P2 19:49
    Stoppage - Offside
  52. P2 18:37
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  53. P2 18:37
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  54. P2 17:40
    John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
  55. P2 17:40
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  56. P2 17:13
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  57. P2 17:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Joseph Woll
  58. P2 16:57
    Stoppage - Icing
  59. P2 16:40
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Sam Carrick in offensive zone
  60. P2 16:37
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Alex Lyon
  61. P2 15:24
    SHOT
    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  62. P2 14:51
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  63. P2 14:51
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  64. P2 14:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Alex Lyon
  65. P2 13:49
    Stoppage - Offside
  66. P2 12:58
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  67. P2 12:58
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  68. P2 12:31
    SHOT
    Bowen Byram shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  69. P2 12:19
    SHOT
    Owen Power shot blocked by William Nylander
  70. P2 11:39
    Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
  71. P2 11:21
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Jack Quinn
    2-2
  72. P2 10:48
    Shorthanded - Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  73. P2 10:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Joseph Woll
  74. P2 09:15
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
  75. P2 09:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  76. P2 09:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Joseph Woll
  77. P2 08:11
    Power play - Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
  78. P2 07:51
    SHOT
    Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Logan Stanley
  79. P2 07:01
    Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  80. P2 06:42
    Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  81. P2 06:42
    Penalty to Rasmus Dahlin 2 minutes for Interference
  82. P2 06:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Michael Pezzetta saved by Alex Lyon
  83. P2 06:34
    SHOT
    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Michael Pezzetta
  84. P2 05:36
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by Sam Carrick
  85. P2 05:24
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
  86. P2 05:09
    SHOT
    Easton Cowan shot blocked by Noah Ostlund
  87. P2 04:39
    SHOT
    Josh Doan shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  88. P2 03:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Alex Lyon
  89. P2 03:33
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  90. P2 03:24
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Joseph Woll
  91. P2 03:03
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
  92. P2 03:02
    SHOT
    Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  93. P2 02:43
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Joseph Woll
  94. P2 02:12
    SHOT
    Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  95. P2 00:53
    Max Domi won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  96. P2 00:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
  97. P2 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  98. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  99. P1 19:44
    Sam Carrick won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  100. P1 19:44
    Stoppage - Icing
  101. P1 18:37
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  102. P1 17:54
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
  103. P1 15:57
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Joseph Woll
  104. P1 15:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by teammate
  105. P1 15:22
    Penalty to Josh Norris 2 minutes for Misconduct
  106. P1 15:22
    Penalty to Luke Schenn 2 minutes for Misconduct
  107. P1 15:22
    Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  108. P1 15:22
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
  109. P1 15:21
    SHOT
    Josh Doan shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  110. P1 15:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
  111. P1 14:50
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in defensive zone
  112. P1 14:50
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  113. P1 14:48
    SHOT
    Philippe Myers shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
  114. P1 13:15
    Takeaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
  115. P1 12:58
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Alex Lyon
  116. P1 12:35
    SHOT
    Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Philippe Myers
  117. P1 12:01
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Alex Lyon
  118. P1 11:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
  119. P1 10:52
    Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  120. P1 10:49
    SHOT
    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  121. P1 09:39
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
  122. P1 09:15
    John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
  123. P1 09:15
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  124. P1 09:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
  125. P1 09:00
    Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  126. P1 08:53
    SHOT
    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
  127. P1 08:12
    Bo Groulx won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
  128. P1 07:23
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  129. P1 07:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Alex Lyon
  130. P1 06:34
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Alex Lyon
  131. P1 06:09
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Dakota Joshua assisted by Nicholas Robertson and Bo Groulx
    1-1
  132. P1 03:42
    Power play - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  133. P1 03:40
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Joseph Woll
  134. P1 02:46
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  135. P1 02:44
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Joseph Woll
  136. P1 02:34
    Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
  137. P1 02:01
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
  138. P1 02:01
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Owen Power assisted by Zach Benson and Sam Carrick
    1-1
  139. P1 01:43
    Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
  140. P1 01:41
    Stoppage - High Stick
  141. P1 01:29
    SHOT
    Luke Schenn shot blocked by Simon Benoit
  142. P1 00:51
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on Rasmus Dahlin in neutral zone
  143. P1 00:00
    Tage Thompson won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Sabres
18Shots on Goal33
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
19Penalty Infraction Mins15
35Hits21
22 Shots Blocked 9
22Giveaways15
Maple LeafsTOR
SabresBUF
18Shots on Goal33
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
19Penalty Infraction Mins15
35Hits21
22 Shots Blocked 9
22Giveaways15

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Sabres
  • Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Sabres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +200, Sabres -230

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 36%
  • Sabres: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 36%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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