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Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Sabres NHL game on March 14, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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NHL
Maple Leafs
2
3
Mar 14, 11PM KeyBank Center
Sabres
Mar 14, 11PM KeyBank Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 0 2
Sabres
1 1 0 0 3
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Maple LeafsTOR
Win %
0%
100%
SabresBUF
Win Probability
TEAM123OTT
Maple Leafs
1 1 0 0 2
Sabres
1 1 0 0 3
OT1 04:54 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
OT1 02:16 Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
OT1 01:02 Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
P3 18:40 Shot missed by Zach Benson
P3 18:02 Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
P3 17:46 Shot missed by Bo Groulx
P3 16:51 Matthew Knies shot blocked by Jason Zucker
P3 16:23 Jason Zucker shot blocked by Max Domi
P3 15:26 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 14:37 Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P3 13:31 Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11 Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:38 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
P3 10:12 Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 07:58 Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 05:59 Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:24 Shot on goal by Luke Schenn saved by Joseph Woll
P3 04:59 Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 03:38 Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 02:47 Jake McCabe shot blocked by Logan Stanley
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
OT
GOALS
ALL
SO
End of Shootout period.
SO
Shootout Goal scored by Alex Tuch on Joseph Woll
SO
Shootout Goal scored by Jack Quinn on Joseph Woll
SO
Shootout attempt by William Nylander saved by Alex Lyon
SO
Shootout attempt missed by Tage Thompson
OT1 04:54
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Tuch
OT1 02:16
SHOT
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
OT1 01:11
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
OT1 01:11
Stoppage - Net Dislodged by Goaltender
OT1 01:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
OT1 00:00
Max Domi won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:11
Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Bo Groulx in defensive zone
P3 19:11
Penalty to John Tavares 2 minutes for Misconduct
P3 18:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Benson
P3 18:02
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
P3 17:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Bo Groulx
P3 16:51
SHOT
Matthew Knies shot blocked by Jason Zucker
P3 16:23
SHOT
Jason Zucker shot blocked by Max Domi
P3 15:26
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 15:22
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 14:37
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Tuch
P3 13:31
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jason Zucker saved by Joseph Woll
P3 13:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Logan Stanley saved by Joseph Woll
P3 11:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
P3 10:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Beck Malenstyn
P3 09:16
Sam Carrick won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
P3 09:16
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 09:02
Stoppage - Icing
P3 07:58
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Jason Zucker
P3 06:31
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Calle Jarnkrok in offensive zone
P3 06:31
Stoppage - TV timeout
P3 06:31
Penalty to Matthew Knies 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Josh Doan)
P3 05:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Luke Schenn saved by Joseph Woll
P3 05:00
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Tage Thompson in offensive zone
P3 04:59
SHOT
Shot missed by Matthew Knies
P3 03:57
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in defensive zone
P3 03:40
John Tavares won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P3 03:38
SHOT
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
P3 02:47
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Logan Stanley
P3 02:29
SHOT
Alex Tuch shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P3 02:07
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Joseph Woll
P3 02:04
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in defensive zone
P3 02:01
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Tuch saved by Joseph Woll
P3 00:22
John Tavares won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P3 00:12
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P3 00:00
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:57
SHOT
Shot missed by Zach Benson
P2 19:49
Stoppage - Offside
P2 18:37
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P2 18:37
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 17:40
John Tavares won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in defensive zone
P2 17:40
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 17:13
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P2 17:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Joseph Woll
P2 16:57
Stoppage - Icing
P2 16:40
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Sam Carrick in offensive zone
P2 16:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Simon Benoit saved by Alex Lyon
P2 15:24
SHOT
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P2 14:51
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P2 14:51
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Alex Lyon
P2 13:49
Stoppage - Offside
P2 12:58
Josh Norris won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
P2 12:58
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 12:31
SHOT
Bowen Byram shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P2 12:19
SHOT
Owen Power shot blocked by William Nylander
P2 11:39
Stoppage - High Stick - TV timeout
P2 11:21
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Jack Quinn
2-2
P2 10:48
Shorthanded - Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P2 10:11
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Joseph Woll
P2 09:15
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Josh Norris in defensive zone
P2 09:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 09:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Doan saved by Joseph Woll
P2 08:11
Power play - Giveaway by Easton Cowan in offensive zone
P2 07:51
SHOT
Power play - John Tavares shot blocked by Logan Stanley
P2 07:01
Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
P2 06:42
Shorthanded - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P2 06:42
Penalty to Rasmus Dahlin 2 minutes for Interference
P2 06:40
SHOT
Shot on goal by Michael Pezzetta saved by Alex Lyon
P2 06:34
SHOT
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Michael Pezzetta
P2 05:36
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by Sam Carrick
P2 05:24
Sam Carrick won faceoff against Nicholas Robertson in neutral zone
P2 05:09
SHOT
Easton Cowan shot blocked by Noah Ostlund
P2 04:39
SHOT
Josh Doan shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P2 03:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Alex Lyon
P2 03:33
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P2 03:24
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Joseph Woll
P2 03:03
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in offensive zone
P2 03:02
SHOT
Nicholas Robertson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
P2 02:43
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zach Metsa saved by Joseph Woll
P2 02:12
SHOT
Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P2 00:53
Max Domi won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P2 00:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Alex Lyon
P2 00:00
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:44
Sam Carrick won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
P1 19:44
Stoppage - Icing
P1 18:37
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P1 17:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Peyton Krebs saved by Joseph Woll
P1 15:57
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Ryan McLeod saved by Joseph Woll
P1 15:28
SHOT
Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by teammate
P1 15:22
Penalty to Josh Norris 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 15:22
Penalty to Luke Schenn 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 15:22
Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 15:22
Maple Leafs won faceoff against Sabres in neutral zone
P1 15:21
SHOT
Josh Doan shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P1 15:11
SHOT
Shot missed by Noah Ostlund
P1 14:50
Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in defensive zone
P1 14:50
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P1 14:48
SHOT
Philippe Myers shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
P1 13:15
Takeaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
P1 12:58
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Alex Lyon
P1 12:35
SHOT
Power play - Tage Thompson shot blocked by Philippe Myers
P1 12:01
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Alex Lyon
P1 11:08
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Josh Norris
P1 10:52
Penalty to Oliver Ekman-Larsson 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 10:49
SHOT
Logan Stanley shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P1 09:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by Philippe Myers saved by Alex Lyon
P1 09:15
John Tavares won faceoff against Tage Thompson in defensive zone
P1 09:15
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 09:06
SHOT
Shot on goal by Josh Norris saved by Joseph Woll
P1 09:00
Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P1 08:53
SHOT
Logan Stanley shot blocked by Morgan Rielly
P1 08:12
Bo Groulx won faceoff against Ryan McLeod in neutral zone
P1 07:23
Tage Thompson won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
P1 07:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Alex Lyon
P1 06:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Alex Lyon
P1 06:09
GOAL
Goal scored by Dakota Joshua assisted by Nicholas Robertson and Bo Groulx
1-1
P1 03:42
Power play - Ryan McLeod won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P1 03:40
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Rasmus Dahlin saved by Joseph Woll
P1 02:46
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P1 02:44
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Tage Thompson saved by Joseph Woll
P1 02:34
Power play - Josh Norris won faceoff against Bo Groulx in offensive zone
P1 02:01
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Tage Thompson in neutral zone
P1 02:01
GOAL
Goal scored by Owen Power assisted by Zach Benson and Sam Carrick
1-1
P1 01:43
Beck Malenstyn credited with hit on Morgan Rielly in defensive zone
P1 01:41
Stoppage - High Stick
P1 01:29
SHOT
Luke Schenn shot blocked by Simon Benoit
P1 00:51
Matthew Knies credited with hit on Rasmus Dahlin in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Tage Thompson won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Sabres
18Shots on Goal33
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
19Penalty Infraction Mins15
35Hits21
22Shots Blocked9
22Giveaways15
Maple LeafsTOR
SabresBUF
18Shots on Goal33
53% Faceoff Win % 47%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/1
19Penalty Infraction Mins15
35Hits21
22Shots Blocked9
22Giveaways15

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Maple Leafs vs. Sabres: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Sabres
  • Date: Saturday, March 14, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: KeyBank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Sabres favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +200, Sabres -230

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 36%
  • Sabres: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 36%, while the Sabres have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Sabres are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at KeyBank Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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