Tennis parlay picks: 3 plus-money spread bets for Wimbledon, July 1
Day 3 of The Championships at Wimbledon presents tennis bettors with a number of solid parlay options.
The first week of Wimbledon is all about finding value before the market completely adjusts to the grass courts of SW19. As the second round gets underway this Wednesday, July 1, the heavy favorites look poised to flex their collective muscle.
While backing the elite players on the moneyline usually offers very little return, the game spread market provides an excellent avenue to find plus-money value. Utilizing Dimers' advanced analytical models, we have identified three tennis bets offering significant statistical edges and +100 or better odds for Wednesday's action.
Tennis parlay - Wimbledon picks
Leg 1: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Sebastian Ofner
- Bet: Hurkacz -4.5 games
- Odds: +100
- Probability: 61.6%
- Edge: 11.6%
Hubert Hurkacz's booming serve and comfortable net play make him a perennial threat on grass. Facing off against Sebastian Ofner, the model spots a massive 11.6% edge on Hurkacz to cover a relatively modest -4.5 game spread.
Because Hurkacz’s matches often feature tiebreaks due to his dominant hold percentage, the market tends to underprice his ability to completely run away with a set once he secures a single break. Against an opponent like Ofner, who can struggle for consistency on faster surfaces, Hurkacz only needs a couple of clean return games across a four- or five-set match to cover this number. At even money (+100) and with a strong 61.6% win probability from the model, this is the highest-value edge on the board.
Leg 2: Tommy Paul vs. Soonwoo Kwon
- Bet: Paul -7.5 games
- Odds: +100
- Probability: 52.2%
- Edge: 2.2%
Tommy Paul has rapidly evolved into one of the most dangerous grass-court players on the ATP tour, thanks to his exceptional movement and transitional game. Laying 7.5 games in a best-of-five format can look intimidating, but Paul's relentless pressure from the baseline makes him highly capable of pulling off heavily lopsided sets (such as a 6-2 or 6-1).
Soonwoo Kwon lacks the raw power required to consistently hit through Paul on this surface, which should lead to plenty of break-point opportunities for the American. The model gives Paul a 52.2% chance to clear this steep hurdle, rendering the +100 price tag a justifiable +EV edge for bettors looking to back an in-form favorite.
American Tommy Paul is plus-money to cover -7.5 games on Wednesday.
Leg 3: Jannik Sinner vs. Nuno Borges
- Bet: Sinner -8.5 games
- Odds: +110
- Probability: 58.6%
- Edge: 11.0%
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner enters his second-round matchup against Nuno Borges as a massive favorite, and the spread reflects it. However, the current line of -8.5 at +110 odds is heavily undervalued by the market.
The model projects Sinner covering this large spread at a 58.6% clip, translating to a double-digit 11.0% edge. Sinner’s return game has become incredibly lethal; he doesn't just win matches on grass, he ruthlessly breaks down his opponent's serve. If Sinner secures a couple of standard 6-3 or 6-2 sets, Borges will have an incredibly uphill battle to keep the total game differential within single digits. Getting a 58.6% probability at a plus-money return (+110) makes this a stellar addition to Wednesday's card.
Tennis parlay odds - Wednesday July 1
Combining these three distinct advantages into a single parlay creates a high-upside payout. By multiplying the individual plus-money odds of Hubert Hurkacz (+100), Tommy Paul (+100), and Jannik Sinner (+110), a successful three-leg spread parlay yields total odds of +740. This means a standard $10 bet would return $74 in profit if all three favorites manage to cover their respective game handicaps.
Given that our analytical model identifies a double-digit statistical edge on both Hurkacz and Sinner individually, tethering them together with Paul's grass-court form offers an aggressive, high-value option for bettors looking for a massive Wednesday afternoon cash.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
