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Rays vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [4/17/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Friday.
MLB action continues on Friday at 6:45 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Rays lock horns with the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.
Bubba Chandler (0-1, 3.86 ERA) will start for the Pirates, up against Nick Martinez (0-0, 2.16 ERA) for the Rays.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53% win probability over the Rays.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Rays vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Rays vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB matchup between the Rays and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Pirates a 53% chance of beating the Rays.
According to our model, the Rays (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 51% chance of going over.
Rays vs. Pirates odds [4/17/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Rays | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-192) | -1.5 (+158) |
| Moneyline | +108 | -125 |
| Total | o8.5 (-102) | u8.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Rays vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Pirates -1.5 | +158 |
| Moneyline | Rays | +108 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -102 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Rays vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Rays at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 6:45 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, April 17, 2026
- Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 53% win probability, will likely beat the Rays in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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