...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
Lightning vs. Jets prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [3/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning will lock horns in the NHL at Canada Life Centre on Thursday, with puck drop at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Jets game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Jets prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Jets 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 60% chance of defeating the Jets.
According to our model, the Jets (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of going over.
Lightning vs. Jets odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+130) | +1.5 (-144) |
| Moneyline | -200 | +170 |
| Total | o5.5 (-122) | u5.5 (+110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Jets picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Jets +1.5 | -144 |
| Moneyline | Jets | +170 |
| Total | Under 5.5 | +110 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Jets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Jets player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Jets?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Jets.
Our projections give Point a 42.6% chance of scoring a goal at Canada Life Centre, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 42.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 42.1% |
| Jake Guentzel | 37.3% |
| Brandon Hagel | 33.7% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 19.8% |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 38.9% |
| Mark Scheifele | 35.2% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 31.1% |
| Cole Perfetti | 28.1% |
| Jonathan Toews | 17.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov | 9.6% |
| Brayden Point | 8.9% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.7% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 3.5% |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | 8.0% |
| Mark Scheifele | 7.0% |
| Gabriel Vilardi | 6.4% |
| Cole Perfetti | 5.8% |
| Jonathan Toews | 3.0% |
Lightning vs. Jets game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Jets and Lightning at Canada Life Centre is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Winnipeg Jets
- Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Canada Life Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Jets on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Jets insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure