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Lightning vs. Jets Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Jets NHL game on March 5, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
1
4
Mar 6, 1AM Canada Life Centre
Mar 6, 1AM Canada Life Centre
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Jets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
0%
100%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Jets | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
P3 19:48 Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 18:16 Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Walker Duehr
P3 17:21 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 17:20 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 17:14 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 16:58 Brayden Point shot blocked by Morgan Barron
P3 15:55 Shot missed by Kyle Connor
P3 15:45 Shot on goal by Haydn Fleury saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:31 Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 13:42 Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 10:56 Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
P3 10:45 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 08:56 Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 08:43 Goal scored by Kyle Connor assisted by Alex Iafallo
P3 08:42 Shot on goal by Kyle Connor saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 08:26 Victor Hedman shot blocked by Elias Salomonsson
P3 07:49 Shot on goal by Tanner Pearson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 07:09 Isaak Phillips shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
P3 06:27 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Connor Hellebuyck
P3 05:34 Goal scored by Gustav Nyquist assisted by Jonathan Toews and Tanner Pearson
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
Jonathan Toews won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Morgan Barron won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Penalty Benches
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Walker Duehr
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Morgan Barron
SHOT
Shot missed by Kyle Connor
SHOT
Shot on goal by Haydn Fleury saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Mark Scheifele won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Pontus Holmberg saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Adam Lowry won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Gabriel Vilardi in neutral zone
Giveaway by Ville Heinola in offensive zone
Mark Scheifele won faceoff against Conor Geekie in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
Elias Salomonsson credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Jonathan Toews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Stoppage - Offside - Chlg Vis - off-side
GOAL
Goal scored by Kyle Connor assisted by Alex Iafallo
1-4
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kyle Connor saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brayden Point won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in neutral zone
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Elias Salomonsson
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tanner Pearson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Isaak Phillips shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
Jonathan Toews won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Connor Hellebuyck
GOAL
Goal scored by Gustav Nyquist assisted by Jonathan Toews and Tanner Pearson
1-3
SHOT
Declan Carlile shot blocked by Jonathan Toews
SHOT
Shot missed by Conor Geekie
SHOT
Shot missed by Walker Duehr
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Koepke
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
Brayden Point won faceoff against Adam Lowry in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Jonathan Toews won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Morgan Barron in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Haydn Fleury shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
End of 2nd Period.
Adam Lowry won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Mark Scheifele assisted by Alex Iafallo and Kyle Connor
0-2
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Morgan Barron won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Cole Koepke saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brayden Point won faceoff against Morgan Barron in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Alex Iafallo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - Adam Lowry won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Mark Scheifele saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Kyle Connor saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Gabriel Vilardi
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Brandon Hagel 2 minutes for Tripping
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Scheifele saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Dylan Samberg shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
SHOT
Shot missed by Dylan DeMelo
SHOT
Shot missed by Gabriel Vilardi
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Kyle Connor shot blocked by Victor Hedman
Mark Scheifele won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan DeMelo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Stoppage - Puck Frozen
Gabriel Vilardi won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Haydn Fleury saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Gabriel Vilardi won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
SHOT
Dylan DeMelo shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
SHOT
Dylan Samberg shot blocked by teammate
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
Brayden Point won faceoff against Adam Lowry in offensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Jets in neutral zone
Power play - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Adam Lowry in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Elias Salomonsson
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Hellebuyck
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Adam Lowry in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Power play - Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Morgan Barron in offensive zone
SHOT
Yanni Gourde shot blocked by teammate
Giveaway by Jonathan Toews in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Connor Hellebuyck
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Kyle Connor shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kyle Connor saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brayden Point won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in offensive zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against Adam Lowry in offensive zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Adam Lowry in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
SHOT
Shot missed by Tanner Pearson
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
SHOT
Dylan Samberg shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
Adam Lowry won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Dylan DeMelo
SHOT
Shot on goal by Morgan Barron saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Dylan DeMelo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Adam Lowry won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Elias Salomonsson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Shot missed by Alex Iafallo
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alex Iafallo saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning won faceoff against Jets in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Ville Heinola shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
Jonathan Toews won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Gabriel Vilardi in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mark Scheifele saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Mark Scheifele shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
Stoppage - Icing
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Cole Perfetti shot blocked by Declan Carlile
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Adam Lowry in offensive zone
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
Power play - Jonathan Toews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Kyle Connor
Shorthanded - Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Mark Scheifele in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Connor Hellebuyck
SHOT
Declan Carlile shot blocked by Haydn Fleury
Alex Iafallo credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Dylan Samberg
Mark Scheifele won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in neutral zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Jonathan Toews in neutral zone
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 27 | Shots on Goal | 30 | |||
| 44% | Faceoff Win % | 56% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 2/0 | |||
| 4 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 23 | Hits | 26 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 17 | Giveaways | 17 |
| |
|---|
| 27 | Shots on Goal | 30 | |||
| 44% | Faceoff Win % | 56% | |||
| 2/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 2/0 | |||
| 4 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 23 | Hits | 26 | |||
| 17 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 17 | Giveaways | 17 |
Game Prediction Article
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Lightning vs. Jets: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Lightning vs. Jets
- Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Canada Life Centre
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 5.5
- Moneyline Odds: Lightning -200, Jets +175
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Lightning: 60%
- Jets: 40%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 60%, while the Jets have a win probability of 40%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Jets in the NHL game at Canada Life Centre on Friday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Lightning vs. Jets predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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