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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Saturday's NHL matchup [3/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Saturday.
NHL action continues on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET as the Tampa Bay Lightning lock horns with the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 62% chance of beating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+116) | +1.5 (-135) |
| Moneyline | -205 | +176 |
| Total | o6.5 (-102) | u6.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -135 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +176 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -118 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs +1.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Brayden Point is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Point a 46.4% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 10.6% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 46.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 43.0% |
| Jake Guentzel | 38.0% |
| Brandon Hagel | 34.3% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 21.7% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 40.5% |
| Auston Matthews | 40.5% |
| John Tavares | 33.2% |
| Matthew Knies | 25.0% |
| Matias Maccelli | 19.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 10.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 9.1% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.9% |
| Brandon Hagel | 6.4% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.0% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 8.4% |
| William Nylander | 8.1% |
| John Tavares | 7.1% |
| Matthew Knies | 4.8% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.5% |
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Lightning at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs on Saturday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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