Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on March 7, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL sport icon
NHL
Lightning
5
2
Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs
Scotiabank Arena
TEAM123T
Lightning
4 0 1 5
Maple Leafs
1 0 1 2
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Lightning
    100%
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
4 0 1 5
Maple Leafs
1 0 1 2
P3 19:29 Goal scored by Nicholas Robertson
P3 18:46 Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 17:55 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 17:44 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P3 17:28 Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 16:07 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 15:41 Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov (Empty Net)
P3 14:39 Jake McCabe shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:57 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 13:37 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P3 13:35 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 13:31 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 12:57 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 12:18 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 12:06 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 11:27 Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 10:09 Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 08:06 Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 08:05 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 07:52 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:29
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  3. P3 19:29
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nicholas Robertson
    5-2
  4. P3 18:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Anthony Stolarz
  5. P3 17:55
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  6. P3 17:44
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
  7. P3 17:29
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  8. P3 17:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Anthony Stolarz
  9. P3 16:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  10. P3 15:41
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  11. P3 15:41
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov (Empty Net)
    5-1
  12. P3 14:39
    SHOT
    Jake McCabe shot blocked by teammate
  13. P3 14:30
    Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
  14. P3 13:57
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
  15. P3 13:37
    SHOT
    Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  16. P3 13:35
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  17. P3 13:31
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  18. P3 12:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
  19. P3 12:19
    John Tavares won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
  20. P3 12:18
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  21. P3 12:06
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Troy Stecher
  22. P3 11:41
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
  23. P3 11:41
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  24. P3 11:27
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  25. P3 10:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  26. P3 08:06
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
  27. P3 08:05
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
  28. P3 07:52
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  29. P3 07:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  30. P3 07:31
    Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  31. P3 07:31
    Stoppage - Offside
  32. P3 07:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  33. P3 06:50
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  34. P3 05:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  35. P3 05:38
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Anthony Stolarz
  36. P3 05:18
    Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
  37. P3 05:18
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  38. P3 04:11
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  39. P3 04:11
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  40. P3 04:09
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  41. P3 02:08
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  42. P3 00:30
    Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
  43. P3 00:30
    Stoppage - Offside
  44. P3 00:16
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
  45. P3 00:16
    Penalty to Simon Benoit 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Yanni Gourde)
  46. P3 00:00
    Max Domi won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  47. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  48. P2 19:46
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Anthony Stolarz
  49. P2 19:26
    John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  50. P2 19:26
    Stoppage - Puck in Benches
  51. P2 19:17
    Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  52. P2 19:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  53. P2 18:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  54. P2 17:52
    SHOT
    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
  55. P2 16:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
  56. P2 15:49
    Power play - Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
  57. P2 14:22
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
  58. P2 14:22
    Penalty to Nicholas Robertson 2 minutes for Misconduct
  59. P2 13:44
    Giveaway by Scott Sabourin in offensive zone
  60. P2 13:40
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  61. P2 13:33
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  62. P2 13:13
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  63. P2 12:18
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  64. P2 12:18
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  65. P2 12:14
    SHOT
    Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  66. P2 11:33
    Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  67. P2 11:33
    Penalty to Scott Sabourin 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Dakota Joshua)
  68. P2 10:02
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  69. P2 10:02
    Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
  70. P2 09:27
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  71. P2 07:34
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
  72. P2 07:34
    Penalty to Troy Stecher 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Pontus Holmberg)
  73. P2 06:17
    Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in offensive zone
  74. P2 06:08
    Max Domi won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  75. P2 06:08
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  76. P2 05:50
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
  77. P2 05:48
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  78. P2 05:12
    Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
  79. P2 04:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Anthony Stolarz
  80. P2 03:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Auston Matthews
  81. P2 02:50
    SHOT
    Lightning shot blocked by teammate
  82. P2 02:16
    Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
  83. P2 02:06
    SHOT
    Simon Benoit shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
  84. P2 01:58
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Troy Stecher
  85. P2 00:44
    SHOT
    Brandon Hagel shot blocked by John Tavares
  86. P2 00:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
  87. P2 00:11
    Giveaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
  88. P2 00:00
    Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  89. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  90. P1 18:52
    SHOT
    Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  91. P1 17:58
    Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Nicholas Robertson)
  92. P1 16:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by Anthony Stolarz
  93. P1 16:47
    Conor Geekie won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  94. P1 16:43
    Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  95. P1 15:45
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  96. P1 15:43
    Stoppage - Offside
  97. P1 15:24
    SHOT
    Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  98. P1 15:06
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  99. P1 15:06
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand
    3-1
  100. P1 14:31
    Shorthanded - Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  101. P1 14:31
    Stoppage - TV timeout
  102. P1 14:31
    Penalty to Brandon Carlo 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Nikita Kucherov)
  103. P1 13:48
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  104. P1 13:48
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Corey Perry assisted by Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli
    3-1
  105. P1 13:09
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  106. P1 13:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  107. P1 13:02
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  108. P1 12:49
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
  109. P1 12:30
    Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  110. P1 12:21
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  111. P1 12:14
    Lightning won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
  112. P1 10:20
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
  113. P1 10:11
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
  114. P1 10:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  115. P1 10:02
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  116. P1 09:59
    Lightning won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  117. P1 09:14
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in defensive zone
  118. P1 09:14
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  119. P1 09:12
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  120. P1 08:35
    SHOT
    Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
  121. P1 07:25
    Power play - Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
  122. P1 06:41
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  123. P1 06:41
    Penalty to Conor Geekie 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Jake McCabe)
  124. P1 06:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
  125. P1 06:04
    Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
  126. P1 06:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
  127. P1 05:36
    Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  128. P1 04:59
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Anthony Stolarz
  129. P1 04:50
    Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
  130. P1 04:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
  131. P1 02:56
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  132. P1 02:14
    Giveaway by Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  133. P1 01:42
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
  134. P1 01:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  135. P1 01:32
    Takeaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
  136. P1 01:22
    SHOT
    Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  137. P1 01:18
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  138. P1 00:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  139. P1 00:24
    Max Domi won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
  140. P1 00:00
    John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  141. P1 00:00
    Game Setup.
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Maple Leafs
33Shots on Goal29
42% Faceoff Win % 59%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins13
26Hits22
11 Shots Blocked 11
12Giveaways15
LightningTB
Maple LeafsTOR
33Shots on Goal29
42% Faceoff Win % 59%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/0
11Penalty Infraction Mins13
26Hits22
11 Shots Blocked 11
12Giveaways15

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
  • Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -200, Maple Leafs +180

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 62%
  • Maple Leafs: 38%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 62%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 38%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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