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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs NHL game on March 7, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
5
2
Mar 8, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
Mar 8, 12AM Scotiabank Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Maple Leafs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Maple Leafs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
P3 19:29 Goal scored by Nicholas Robertson
P3 18:46 Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 17:55 Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 17:44 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
P3 17:28 Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 16:07 Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 15:41 Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov (Empty Net)
P3 14:39 Jake McCabe shot blocked by teammate
P3 13:57 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 13:37 Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
P3 13:35 Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
P3 13:31 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 12:57 Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
P3 12:18 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 12:06 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Troy Stecher
P3 11:27 Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
P3 10:09 Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 08:06 Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 08:05 Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 07:52 Shot missed by Auston Matthews
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Nicholas Robertson
5-2
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Conor Geekie won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Brandon Hagel assisted by Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov (Empty Net)
5-1
SHOT
Jake McCabe shot blocked by teammate
Giveaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Auston Matthews shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
SHOT
Shot missed by William Nylander
SHOT
Shot missed by Pontus Holmberg
John Tavares won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Troy Stecher
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Max Domi in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Anthony Stolarz
Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Max Domi in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
Shorthanded - Steven Lorentz won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
Penalty to Simon Benoit 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Yanni Gourde)
Max Domi won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Shot on goal by Corey Perry saved by Anthony Stolarz
John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Domi saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Calle Jarnkrok
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
Power play - Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
Penalty to Nicholas Robertson 2 minutes for Misconduct
Giveaway by Scott Sabourin in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Power play - Auston Matthews shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
Penalty to Scott Sabourin 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Dakota Joshua)
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Stoppage - Offside - TV timeout
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
Penalty to Troy Stecher 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Pontus Holmberg)
Giveaway by Nicholas Robertson in offensive zone
Max Domi won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against John Tavares in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Easton Cowan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Giveaway by Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by Auston Matthews
SHOT
Lightning shot blocked by teammate
Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Simon Benoit shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
SHOT
Shot missed by Troy Stecher
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by John Tavares
SHOT
Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
Giveaway by Troy Stecher in defensive zone
Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
SHOT
Power play - Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
Penalty to Darren Raddysh 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Nicholas Robertson)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Scott Sabourin saved by Anthony Stolarz
Conor Geekie won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Stoppage - Offside
SHOT
Jacob Quillan shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
GOAL
Power play - Goal scored by Oliver Bjorkstrand
3-1
Shorthanded - Calle Jarnkrok won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Stoppage - TV timeout
Penalty to Brandon Carlo 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Nikita Kucherov)
John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
GOAL
Goal scored by Corey Perry assisted by Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli
3-1
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Max Domi in neutral zone
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
Auston Matthews won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
Lightning won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Jacob Quillan in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jacob Quillan saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Anthony Stolarz
Power play - Giveaway by Matthew Knies in offensive zone
Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Penalty to Conor Geekie 2 minutes for Tripping (Drawn by Jake McCabe)
SHOT
Shot missed by Steven Lorentz
Lightning won faceoff against Maple Leafs in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by J.J. Moser saved by Anthony Stolarz
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Anthony Stolarz
Jacob Quillan won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Matias Maccelli
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
Giveaway by Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
SHOT
Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Takeaway by William Nylander in neutral zone
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Jake McCabe
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Max Domi won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
Game Setup.
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 33 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 42% | Faceoff Win % | 59% | |||
| 4/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/0 | |||
| 11 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 26 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 11 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 15 |
| |
|---|
| 33 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 42% | Faceoff Win % | 59% | |||
| 4/1 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/0 | |||
| 11 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 13 | |||
| 26 | Hits | 22 | |||
| 11 | Shots Blocked | 11 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 15 |
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Lightning vs. Maple Leafs
- Date: Saturday, March 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 6.5
- Moneyline Odds: Lightning -200, Maple Leafs +180
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Lightning: 62%
- Maple Leafs: 38%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 62%, while the Maple Leafs have a win probability of 38%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Lightning vs. Maple Leafs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.
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