Lightning vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [4/7/2026]

The Ottawa Senators will square off with the Tampa Bay Lightning, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday, beginning at 7:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Lightning.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Lightning vs. Senators matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Lightning vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL game between the Lightning and Senators, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Senators a 52% chance of beating the Lightning.

According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

Lightning vs. Senators odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Lightning	Senators
Puck Line	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+185)
Moneyline	+120	-130
Total	o6.5 (-105)	u6.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Lightning vs. Senators picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Lightning +1.5	-198
Moneyline	Lightning	+120
Total	Under 6.5	-105

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Lightning vs. Senators player props

Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Senators?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Senators.

Our projections give Guentzel a 42.3% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is a 9.2% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	42.3%
Nikita Kucherov	40.1%
Brayden Point	39.5%
Gage Goncalves	19.5%
Nick Paul	18.8%

Ottawa Senators

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	32.5%
Drake Batherson	28.4%
Tim Stutzle	28.4%
Shane Pinto	26.3%
Dylan Cozens	25.9%

First goal scorer predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.2%
Nikita Kucherov	8.2%
Brayden Point	8.0%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	3.6%
Gage Goncalves	3.5%

Ottawa Senators

Player	First Goal Probability
Brady Tkachuk	6.2%
Drake Batherson	5.3%
Tim Stutzle	5.0%
Shane Pinto	4.9%
Dylan Cozens	4.9%

Lightning vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details

Tuesday's game between the Senators and Lightning at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators
• Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Senators, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Tuesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.

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