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Lightning vs. Senators prediction: Ottawa favored to win Tuesday's NHL matchup [4/7/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators predictions for NHL Tuesday.
The Ottawa Senators and Tampa Bay Lightning will meet in the NHL at Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Senators a slight edge with a 52% win probability over the Lightning.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Tuesday's Lightning vs. Senators matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Lightning vs. Senators prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NHL matchup between the Lightning and Senators, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Senators a 52% chance of defeating the Lightning.
According to our model, the Lightning (+1.5) have a 69% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 53% chance of staying under.
Lightning vs. Senators odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lightning | Senators |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-215) | -1.5 (+185) |
| Moneyline | +120 | -130 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lightning vs. Senators picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Lightning +1.5 | -215 |
| Moneyline | Lightning | +120 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -110 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Lightning to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Lightning vs. Senators player props
Who will score a goal in Lightning vs. Senators?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Lightning vs. Senators.
Our projections give Guentzel a 42.7% chance of scoring a goal at Canadian Tire Centre, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 42.7% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 40.1% |
| Brayden Point | 40.1% |
| Gage Goncalves | 19.8% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 19.4% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 32.8% |
| Tim Stutzle | 29.4% |
| Drake Batherson | 27.8% |
| Dylan Cozens | 26.4% |
| Shane Pinto | 26.1% |
First goal scorer predictions
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.9% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.3% |
| Brayden Point | 7.7% |
| Nick Paul | 3.7% |
| Gage Goncalves | 3.5% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 6.7% |
| Tim Stutzle | 5.2% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.9% |
| Drake Batherson | 4.9% |
| Dylan Cozens | 4.4% |
Lightning vs. Senators game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Senators and Lightning at Canadian Tire Centre is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators
- Date: Tuesday, April 7, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Canadian Tire Centre
Conclusion
We predict the Senators, with a 52% win probability, will likely beat the Lightning on Tuesday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Lightning vs. Senators insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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